Paraná Research: Cleitinho could be elected governor in the first round in Minas Gerais.

247 - New research from the Paraná Research Institute, conducted between October 1st and 5th, 2025, reveals that Senator Cleitinho (Republicanos-MG) is emerging as the favorite in the race for governor of Minas Gerais in 2026. The study surveyed 1.505 voters in 68 municipalities across the state and has a margin of error of 2,6 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

According to data released by Paraná Pesquisas, Cleitinho appears in first place in the simulated scenario, reaching a percentage sufficient to win in the first round if the elections were held today. The survey also measured voting intentions for the Senate and the evaluation of the government of Romeu Zema (Novo), who ends his second term in 2026.

Cleitinho leads by a wide margin.

In the main scenario for the state executive branch, Cleitinho has 40,6% of the voting intentions, followed by Kalil (PSD), with 13,5%; Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), with 13%; Marília Campos (PT), with 10,6%; and Mateus Simões (Novo), with 5,9%. Undecided voters and blank or null votes total 16,3%.

Analysis segmented by gender and age group shows that the senator performs particularly well among men (50,6%) and voters aged 35 to 59, where he reaches almost 49% of preferences. Among those who participated in religious activities in the last ten days, preference for Cleitinho is also higher: 44,8% compared to 36% among those who did not participate.

Other dispute scenarios

In a second scenario, without Cleitinho's presence, the race becomes more fragmented. Kalil leads with 19,1%, followed by Rodrigo Pacheco (17%), Marília Campos (15%), and Mateus Simões (12,2%). In a third scenario, when Aécio Neves (PSDB) appears among the names tested, he reaches 21,4%, technically tied with Kalil (17,8%) and ahead of Marília Campos (14,7%).

Evaluation of the Zema government

The survey also evaluated the government of Romeu Zema. According to the survey, 63,6% of Minas Gerais residents approve of his administration, while 32,2% disapprove and 4,3% did not express an opinion. The approval rate is slightly lower than that recorded in April 2025, when the index was 64,6%.

Senate

In addition to the state government race, the survey also assessed the Senate race in Minas Gerais. In the spontaneous survey, Senator Cleitinho appears again as the most remembered name, cited by 2,9% of voters, followed by Nikolas Ferreira (2,6%) and Governor Romeu Zema (2%). However, the majority of voters have not yet decided on their vote: 81,1% did not know how to answer or did not give an opinion.

In simulated scenarios, the race appears fragmented. When voters were asked to choose two names for the Senate, since two seats will be up for grabs in 2026, Aécio Neves leads with 27,6%, followed by Carlos Viana (24,9%) and Maurício do Vôlei (16,8%). Other names, such as Duda Salabert, Marcelo Aro, and Rogério Correia, appear technically tied in intermediate support ranges, revealing that the election for the Upper House should be more competitive and fragmented than the race for the Executive branch.