Tarcísio's marketing strategist launches governor as president, Derrite as governor, and defends Michelle as vice president.

247 - Political strategist Pablo Nobel, responsible for Tarcísio de Freitas's victorious campaign for governor of São Paulo in 2022 and for Javier Milei's election in Argentina, granted a detailed interview with Globo about the future of the Brazilian right and the possibilities for 2026. The conversation took place at the headquarters of his company, PLTK, in São Paulo, and addressed Tarcísio's political maneuvering, Bolsonaro's dependence on the government, and the prospect of the former president's eventual imprisonment.

"Tarcísio is absolutely loyal to Bolsonaro and will not make any move to harm him. He will wait until March 31, 2026, to find out what Bolsonaro's decision will be. Until then, we will be sitting and waiting to see what he will say," Nobel stated. The strategist emphasizes that, despite Bolsonaro's ineligibility determined by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the former president has not yet internalized this reality and believes he can reverse the decision.

Tarcísio, however, has already established himself as the candidate of the ruling class and local and international financial capital, which places great expectations on him for deepening neoliberal policies and large-scale privatizations. Among the anticipated plans is the sale of Petrobras, one of the main targets of the financial market.

Asked about the possibility of Bolsonaro's arrest, Nobel said he believes it should happen in September 2025. "This could generate a popular reaction and transform Bolsonaro into a martyr of conservatism, reunifying the movement that currently has multiple candidates," he assessed.

Regarding the recent demonstration in Copacabana, Nobel acknowledged that the turnout was lower than expected and attributed this to the lack of a broader agenda. "The organizers erred in focusing only on amnesty. If they had also emphasized 'Out with Lula,' perhaps they would have mobilized more people," he analyzed.

Tarcísio and his relationship with Bolsonaro and the Supreme Federal Court.

Another point addressed was Tarcísio's role within Bolsonarism and his relationship with the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Nobel rejects the idea that Tarcísio is a "Bolsonarist through and through," as some STF ministers have described him. "He has excellent state management skills and a realistic pragmatism. He knows how to balance his alliances," he stated.

The marketing strategist also defended Tarcísio's participation in Bolsonaro's rallies, even those where Supreme Court justices were attacked. "He maintained loyalty to the Bolsonaro group and, at the same time, has a dialogue with Alexandre de Moraes and other justices. That's political skill," he justified.

The right-wing scenario for 2026 and the choice of vice-president.

According to Nobel, Tarcísio's candidacy for the presidency will only happen if Bolsonaro does not run. If that happens, he advocates for former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro as an excellent option for vice-president. "She is a very strong name, especially among evangelical voters, and would add a lot of value to the ticket," he opined.

Regarding the São Paulo state government, should Tarcísio leave office to run for president, Nobel believes that Guilherme Derrite, the current Secretary of Public Security, is the most competitive candidate to succeed him. "A tougher stance on security is what voters are looking for," he said.

The left and the post-Lula era.

The strategist also assessed the left's prospects for 2026 and indicated that Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino would be the best candidate to succeed Lula. "He is an excellent debater and has experience in all three branches of government. However, I don't believe he will leave the Supreme Court to run," he considered.

Finally, Nobel indicated that Lula might give up on reelection. "He is smart and knows he faces difficulties. His lack of a plan for the coming years is evident, and his government no longer has the impact it once had," he concluded.

The political landscape for 2026 is still far from being defined, but, according to Nobel's analysis, the right will have to balance its strategy between the hope for Bolsonaro's electability, the possible candidacy of Tarcísio, and the need for a discourse that attracts centrist voters.