Eduardo Paes leads and could win the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race in the first round in 2026, according to Paraná Pesquisas.
A survey shows the mayor of Rio with a wide lead in all simulated scenarios, indicating the possibility of a first-round victory.
247 - The latest survey by the Paraná Pesquisas Institute, released this Monday (1), reveals the favoritism of Mayor Eduardo Paes (PSD) in the race for the government of the State of Rio de Janeiro in 2026.
Scenarios point to a comfortable victory for Paes.
In simulated scenarios — when names of potential candidates are presented — Paes appears in a prominent position.
- Scene 1Eduardo Paes leads with 54,8% of voting intentions, followed by Washington Reis (10,6%), Rodrigo Bacellar (7,8%), Monica Benicio (4,4%) and Ítalo Marsili (1,0%). Blank votes, null votes or voters who did not know how to answer total 21,5%.
- Scene 2Paes maintains growth and reaches 56,8%Meanwhile, Washington Reis appears with 13,3%, Monica Benicio with 5,2%, and Ítalo Marsili with 1,3%. The percentage of blank, null, and undecided votes reaches 23,4%.
- Scene 3Even facing a formidable opponent like federal deputy Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Paes leads with 50,6%, compared to 30,5% for Bolsonaro and 5,3% for Monica Benicio. Undecided voters and blank/null votes total 13,5%.
The numbers show that, in all scenarios tested, Eduardo Paes surpasses the 50% mark of valid votes, consolidating the possibility of victory in the first round.
Research methodology
The survey was conducted by the Paraná Research Institute between August 24 and 27, 2025, with 2 face-to-face interviews in 66 municipalities in the state. The margin of error is 2,2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence level.
