With 37 on Paulista Avenue, Bolsonarism shows less momentum than in 2024.

247 - The pro-Bolsonaro demonstration held this Sunday (3) on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, gathered around 37,6 people at the peak of the event, according to measurements by Monitor of the Political Debate The event was organized by Cebrap, from the University of São Paulo (USP), in partnership with the NGO More in Common. The number represents a drop in participation compared to some of the previous events of the Bolsonaro base — such as the event in April of this year, which brought 44,9 people to the avenue, and the one in February 2024, which gathered 185 supporters in the same location.

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) did not attend because he is legally prohibited from leaving his home on weekends, according to a precautionary measure imposed by Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court (STF). He followed the event via videoconference, but did not speak live.

Another significant absence was that of the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos). Considered a possible political heir to Bolsonaro, Tarcísio was recovering from a medical procedure and was neither present nor sent a message to the demonstrators. The governor's absence frustrated supporters and leaders who expected to see him as the main figure at the event, given Bolsonaro's inability to be physically present.

"React Brazil" and requests for amnesty.

With the slogan "React Brazil," the event's main demands were amnesty for Bolsonaro and his allies investigated or convicted for involvement in the attempted coup d'état after the 2022 elections, and the impeachment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes.

The demonstration also takes place in the context of growing tension between the Brazilian judiciary and the United States. The Trump administration recently announced sanctions against Moraes, accusing the magistrate of violating fundamental freedoms during the investigations into the coup plot, in which Bolsonaro is a defendant. The organizers' rhetoric reinforced the narrative of censorship and persecution, common in acts of Bolsonaro's base.

Empty act

The count by Cebrap/USP, conducted with the aid of drones and artificial intelligence software, indicates that the peak attendance occurred at 15:33 PM. The 12% margin of error points to an attendance between 33,1 and 42,1 people. Despite the growth compared to the event on June 29th, which had gathered only 12,4 people, the event did not mark the recovery expected by leaders, as it was smaller than the April event and the events held last year. 

This was the eighth event organized by the hard core of Bolsonaro's supporters since 2022, and the first with Bolsonaro's complete absence and without the active participation of other national leaders of the institutional right.

Besides São Paulo, the mobilization included demonstrations in 62 Brazilian cities, with the highest concentration in the South, especially in Santa Catarina. Despite this, the decentralized strategy did not compensate for the visible low turnout in the São Paulo capital, raising doubts about the radical right's ability to mobilize in a scenario without Bolsonaro in the streets.

With information Metropolis.