Dino says Datafolha confirms Lula's lead: "small changes that don't suggest any spectacular 'turnaround'"

247 - Former governor and senator-elect Flávio Dino (PSB-MA) commented this Wednesday (19) on the result of the Datafolha survey, which points to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) with 52% of valid votes against 48% for Jair Bolsonaro (PL). 

On Twitter, Dino downplayed the fluctuation in relation to the latest Datafolha poll and stressed that Lula remains the favorite. "Datafolha confirms Lula's lead. Small changes that don't suggest any spectacular 'turnaround'. The vulgarity and violence of Bolsonaro supporters, including against churches, are likely to increase. We must respond with a Patriotic Mobilization: occupying the streets with joy and hope," stated Flávio Dino. 

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Datafolha: Lula has 52% of valid votes and Bolsonaro, 48%.

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) maintained 49% of voting intentions in the second round of the race for the Planalto Palace, while President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) rose 1 point to 45%, according to a Datafolha poll released this Wednesday.

Since the survey has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, the difference between the candidates is at the limit of the margin of error, Datafolha pointed out.

Blank and null votes totaled 4%, compared to 5% in the poll released on Friday, and those who responded that they did not know or did not want to answer remained at 1%.

Considering only valid votes, which exclude blank, null, and undecided votes, Lula has 52% against Bolsonaro's 48%. In the previous poll, the score was 53% to 47%. In the first round, the Workers' Party candidate finished ahead with 48,43% of the valid votes, against the president's 43,20%.

The Datafolha poll, conducted between Monday and Wednesday, was carried out after the first debate in the second round between the two candidates, which took place on Sunday.

Regarding rejection, 50% said they would not vote for Bolsonaro under any circumstances, compared to 51% in the previous poll, and 46% said the same about Lula, the same level as before.

REGIONS AND RELIGIONS

The narrowing of Lula's lead in the national sample can likely be explained by the widening of the pro-Bolsonaro gap in the Southeast region.

The current president has risen to 50% in voting intentions in the region, compared to 43% for the Workers' Party candidate. In the poll released on Friday, the score in the Southeast region was 48% to 44%.

In the state of São Paulo alone, Datafolha showed Bolsonaro with 47% and the former president with 43%. In a survey released on October 7, the score was 46% to 44%.

In the Northeast, Lula's lead has narrowed, but the former president still holds a comfortable advantage: 67% to 29% -- it was 68% to 27% before.

In the Midwest, however, it was Bolsonaro who experienced a negative change, but he still holds a large lead over the Workers' Party candidate: 53% to 39% -- compared to 55% to 39% previously.

The Southern Region showed stability, repeating the same score as the previous poll: 55% to 38% in favor of Bolsonaro.

In the North, Bolsonaro saw a minimal positive swing, with the score standing at 50% to 46%, compared to 49% to 46%.

In the religious category, Lula lost 3 points among evangelicals, and Bolsonaro's lead in the segment widened, rising to 66% against 28%, compared to 65% to 31%.

Targeted by several fake news stories in this area, such as the false claim that Lula would close churches if elected, the Workers' Party member released a "Commitment Letter to Evangelicals" this Wednesday morning, in which he pledges to maintain the religious freedom guaranteed as in his previous governments, among other points. The former president resisted releasing such a document because he did not want to enter into a religious dispute.

Among Catholics, Lula's support increased by 1 point, bringing the score to 58% against 37%, compared to 57% to 37%.

CONSOLIDATED VOTE

The survey indicated that the vast majority of voters have already decided on their vote, with 94% certain, compared to 93% last week, while the level of those who say their vote could still change remained at 6%.

Among those who declared they would vote for Lula, 94% stated they were completely certain of their choice, compared to 95%. Of those who declared they would vote for Bolsonaro, 95% responded that they were totally decided, compared to 94%.

Datafolha also surveyed the evaluation of the Bolsonaro government. The percentage of those who rate the administration as excellent or good remained at 38%, repeating the previous level, while 39% rate it as bad or terrible, also the same previous level. Those who consider the government average remained at 22%.

Datafolha interviewed 2.912 people in 181 municipalities.