The Sentencing Bill has minimal chances of advancing in the Senate.

247 - Senate leaders are cautiously and suspiciously evaluating the Sentencing Bill, currently under consideration in the Chamber of Deputies. According to reports, the chances of the proposal advancing in the Upper House are considered minimal given the resistance from key political figures.

According to the MetropolisThe distance between the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), and the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), has contributed to the cooling of the agenda. The urgency of the bill, which initially provided for amnesty for those convicted for the acts of January 8, was approved by a large majority — 311 votes in favor — but ended up being reformulated. Under the rapporteurship of Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade-SP), the text began to deal with the reduction of sentences, and no longer with collective pardon, as advocated by allies of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

Resistance in the Senate after recent defeats

Behind the scenes, senators say there is a climate of low receptiveness to high-impact proposals coming from the Chamber of Deputies. The main example is the rejection of the so-called "Proposed Amendment to the Constitution regarding the Protection of Public Entities," which had easily passed among the deputies but was blocked in the Senate after massive protests in several cities.

One leader interviewed highlighted that the Senate will be "very attentive" to new matters after the experience with the proposed constitutional amendment considered "embarrassing," which broadened the protection of parliamentarians against investigations.

Reporting under suspicion

The choice of Paulinho da Força as rapporteur for the bill also raises concerns. Despite his efforts to craft a balanced text, his close ties to sectors of the opposition linked to Bolsonaro have sparked criticism. Attempts to engage with Davi Alcolumbre were unsuccessful, and the rapporteur transferred the dialogue to Hugo Motta.

However, signals coming from the Senate presidency indicate that the proposal may "die on the beach" before even advancing in the House.

Discarded alternatives

Before the report was finalized, Alcolumbre considered drafting his own text, in line with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), which provided for reduced sentences. However, the initiative did not prosper and was absorbed by the Chamber of Deputies, which generated dissatisfaction among senators.

Party leaders in the Upper House also believe that Hugo Motta faces political weakness and that Alcolumbre is acting prudently by avoiding making an immediate commitment to the issue.

Thus, the prevailing perception in the Senate is that the sentencing guidelines bill will hardly find room to move forward in the short term.