Alcolumbre stalls agendas in the Senate, gains strength in nominations, and the Lula government yields to move forward.

247 - Under the presidency of Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), the Federal Senate operated at a slow pace in the first half of 2025. According to a newspaper report. The GlobeThe Senate agenda was dominated by the senator's own specific interests, including the approval of a proposal to relax environmental licensing and efforts to block the increase in the Tax on Financial Operations (IOF), a measure essential to the fiscal strategy of the Lula (PT) government. In contrast, projects with greater structural impact made little progress, in a context of friction between the branches of government and internal disputes for political space.

With 2026 approaching and the traditional legislative paralysis preceding elections, the Planalto Palace is working to turn the tide in the second half of the year. To this end, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has already begun making concessions: he has backed down on appointments to regulatory agencies and paved the way to unblock stalled confirmation hearings, including those for nominees to higher courts.

Bargaining and gestures - In response to pressure from Alcolumbre, the government agreed to review names nominated for strategic positions, especially at the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel) and the National Petroleum Agency (ANP). The approval of these nominations opens the way for a concentrated effort in August, when the Senate is expected to vote on nominations for the Superior Court of Justice (STJ) and the Superior Military Court (STM).

In an attempt to signal détente, Alcolumbre, along with the Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), met with Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. The meeting addressed the 50% tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Brazilian products, reinforcing the gesture of institutional rapprochement.

On the same day, the Senate approved, in the first round, the constitutional amendment that removes spending on court-ordered payments from the ceiling of the new fiscal framework—a proposal considered a priority by the government.

Stalled projects and resistance to gambling - Despite the partial resumption of dialogue, other issues remain stalled. The second stage of the tax reform regulation and the new Bankruptcy Law are still lagging behind. Meanwhile, the attempt to legalize gambling was shelved before the parliamentary recess, facing resistance from the base and with no date set for further consideration in plenary.

Meanwhile, União Brasil, Alcolumbre's party, continues to reinforce a stance of independence—and even opposition. For example, the party refused to nominate its leader, Pedro Lucas Fernandes (MA), for the Ministry of Communications. The appointee, Frederico Siqueira, was the result of personal lobbying by the Senate president. Something similar is expected to happen with the Post Office, which is about to change leadership after the announcement of the departure of its current president, Fabiano Silva. Alcolumbre himself has been working behind the scenes to exert his influence over the new appointment, even without formal support from the party.

Alcolumbre free, loose bench - Despite his individual prominence, leaders of the União party affirm that Alcolumbre's agreements with the Planalto Palace do not bind the party's representatives, who remain without any commitment to alignment in votes. In practice, this allows the senator to act as a political operator without dragging the entire party along with him, which has been flirting with sectors of the opposition.

Fiscal adjustment bill under dispute - One of the key tests of political coordination will be the processing of the Provisional Measure that increases government revenue, drafted by the Ministry of Finance. The MP increases taxation on previously exempt investments, such as LCIs, LCAs, fintechs, and online betting, and is part of the same package as the decree that increased the IOF (tax on financial transactions) — later overturned by Congress and, to a large extent, reinstated by Minister Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court.

The proposal will be evaluated by a joint committee chaired by Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), with Congressman Carlos Zarattini (PT-SP) as rapporteur. There was a risk of the measure being weakened by its fragmentation into other projects, such as the one dealing with income tax exemption, reported by Arthur Lira (PP-AL). However, in a meeting with Hugo Motta and Alcolumbre, Minister Fernando Haddad requested that the provisional measure be kept intact—an appeal that was granted.

Given the slow pace of legislation and the power Alcolumbre has gained in appointments, the Lula government will have to balance its priorities with the power struggle imposed by the Senate.