January 8th: Alcolumbre secures support in the Supreme Court for reduced sentences, but without amnesty for Bolsonaro.

247 - The push for a possible amnesty for those involved in the events of January 8th has gained momentum behind the scenes in Brasília, with pressure from various sectors of the political sphere. According to... FSPThe proceedings occurred simultaneously with the trial of seven defendants accused of involvement in the coup attempts. During the first two days of the trial, speculation arose about a possible amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro (PL), an action that would affect not only the three branches of government but also the 2026 elections. Although Davi Alcolumbre, president of the Senate, declared his support for a bill that reduces the sentences of those convicted for the January 8th coup, without including Bolsonaro in the pardon, prominent figures from the center and the opposition expressed disagreement, advocating for a broad amnesty that would free the former president from prison.

In the Senate, political leaders are divided on the form of the proposal. Some advocate for a general pardon for all those involved in the attacks, while maintaining Bolsonaro's ineligibility, a strategic point that benefits the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), in his candidacy for president in 2026. Tarcísio has been actively involved in the political maneuvering to secure the broad pardon, with the support of the centrist bloc. According to sources from the Lula (PT) government and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the expectation is that this move will have an impact on the elections, in addition to providing a response to the Bolsonaro wing that questions Tarcísio's viability.

Although the amnesty bill needs congressional approval, President Lula's signature will be crucial in determining the proposal's future. The final decision, however, will rest with Congress itself, which can overturn presidential vetoes. For a broad pardon, approximately 300 votes are needed in the Chamber of Deputies, indicating sufficient support to guarantee the bill's approval. The dispute is at an impasse, with the trial of Bolsonaro and other defendants scheduled to conclude next week. The maximum sentences for the accused could exceed 40 years in prison, further increasing the pressure on lawmakers.

Davi Alcolumbre, in turn, defends an alternative to the broad amnesty. According to him, there is no majority support for the proposal, which includes pardoning Bolsonaro. In an interview, the Senate president stated to Folha that he rejects the idea of ​​a general amnesty and that he will work on an alternative project. This project, already discussed by former Senate president Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), has the support of Supreme Court justices, since it would not involve pardoning those who planned or financed the coup attempts. However, the resistance from Bolsonaro supporters, who demand Bolsonaro's inclusion in the pardon, has been an obstacle to advancing this proposal.

Despite the divisions, center-right and right-wing parliamentarians are considering the possibility of a middle ground, which would include a negotiated solution to guarantee the proposal's approval. Behind the scenes, it is believed that this strategy could involve an informal compromise with Supreme Court justices to prevent the court from overturning the proposal. However, some consider the move by the center-right and Tarcísio to be merely an image strategy, serving to secure the candidacy of the governor of São Paulo without compromising the Bolsonaro base.

In the Supreme Federal Court (STF), pressure regarding the amnesty proposal remains high. Some ministers consider Alcolumbre's project more favorable, although, after the political maneuvering, there is greater willingness for a broad pardon. The expectation is that the STF will rule on the constitutionality of the measure if it is approved by Congress. In recent statements, the court's president, Luís Roberto Barroso, stated that amnesty before the trial would be "impossible," but after it, it could become a political issue.

The push for amnesty also gained momentum in Congress, with support from parties such as PP, União Brasil, and Republicanos, who are urgently advocating for the proposal. The PT, through its leader Lindbergh Farias (RJ), expressed opposition, considering the advancement of amnesty a mistake. Farias attributed Tarcísio's move to a strategic action to consolidate his presidential candidacy, while simultaneously seeking to avoid internal opposition among Bolsonaro supporters.

In a meeting with leaders of União Brasil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) reiterated his opposition to advancing the amnesty, seeking to strengthen the government's resistance to the project. The president emphasized, in his meeting at the Palácio da Alvorada, that the approval of the amnesty would represent a surrender to US President Donald Trump, who, in turn, has been a key figure in mobilizing political allies in support of Bolsonaro.