Does Lula want to lose in São Paulo?
The former president helped elect Dilma, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to repeat the magic with Fernando Haddad in the São Paulo mayoral race.
The column below was published three weeks ago. It is being republished in light of the first Datafolha poll on the São Paulo mayoral election, released today. Read it:
The numbers from the PT's internal polls for the São Paulo mayoral race are crystal clear: Marta Suplicy has 30%, José Serra (PSDB) appears with 23%, and Gabriel Chalita (PMDB) is third with around 6%. Furthermore, Marta's disapproval rating has decreased, while Serra's has increased, due to the wounds opened by the style of his 2010 presidential campaign. This means that the PT, whether one likes the party or its natural candidate or not, has a real chance of regaining control of the richest city in the country.
Given this, it is surprising – and also outrageous – that former president Lula is supporting the candidacy of the neophyte Fernando Haddad, who is operating clandestinely in the polls, arguing that São Paulo, saturated with the polarization between Serra and Marta, needs something "new." What is the logic? Is Lula playing for or against his party? Does he intend to win or lose the election in São Paulo?
Losing? But how so? Well, the fact is that today there is only one relevant dispute in Brazilian politics, one that no longer has any opposition. It is between the creator and the creature, that is, between Lula and Dilma. And the big question is: who will be the candidate in 2014? Him or her? It is within this context that the 2012 municipal election in São Paulo is situated, where a possible victory for Marta Suplicy would be an important pillar for Dilma's re-election.
Within the party, no one dares to openly confront the former president. But what's good for Lula isn't necessarily good for the PT (Workers' Party). He has already demonstrated his political acumen by making a previously unknown technocrat president of the Republic. But that doesn't mean the magic would repeat itself with Haddad, who also has vulnerabilities, such as the errors in the ENEM (National High School Exam) and textbooks. Furthermore, not all of Lula's ideas are brilliant. Just remember that he tried to promote Ciro Gomes as a candidate for governor of São Paulo.
Lula is concerned with only one thing: his political future. Even if that means crushing his former allies.