The recess will allow the government to catch its breath.
This last week of Congressional activity before the recess will indicate the current mood of the government's parliamentary base regarding the political crisis, but indications point to greater cohesion, after an apparent reflux in coup-mongering and an equally apparent repositioning of the PMDB, more inclined to defend Dilma and Temer, reveals columnist Tereza Cruvinel of 247; according to her, the votes do not pose a risk of major defeats for Dilma; then comes the recess, and the government should use it to present measures to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis, and, mainly, to prepare politically for the battle of approving the 2014 accounts; if the government has managed to lower the political temperature with the respite of the recess, they will have less chance of success.
Teresa Cruvinel This last week of Congressional activity before the recess will indicate the current mood of the government's parliamentary base regarding the political crisis. The indications are of greater cohesion, after an apparent decline in coup-mongering and a similarly apparent repositioning of the PMDB – more inclined to defend Dilma and Temer from maneuvers aimed at removing Dilma or both of them.
The Senate is likely to postpone the vote on the bill that reduces tax breaks for companies until August, which is bad for the government: the measure may only take effect in 2016. Renan had a conversation today with Minister Joaquim Levy where he warned that it is unlikely the matter will be voted on before the recess. On the other hand, it eliminates the risk of a defeat now.
The Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in a joint session, need to approve the Budget Guidelines Law for next year by the end of the week, after the final report is voted on by the Budget Committee. The ball is in the PMDB's court: the committee's president is Rose de Freitas, a member of the PMDB party, but there are no signs that Congress wants to postpone the recess to discuss the law that will govern the 2016 budget.
Also to be considered in the joint session are 12 vetoes by Dilma, but the one concerning the pension factor is not on this list. These matters are not of crucial importance, and the tendency is for the vetoes to be upheld.
Furthermore, the Chamber will dedicate itself to the matter that most inspires its president, Eduardo Cunha: political and electoral reforms.
As you can see, there is no risk of major defeats for Dilma this week. Then comes the recess, and the government should use it to present measures to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis, such as today's decision to raise the limit on salary commitments for payroll loans from 30% to 35%.
And, above all, to prepare politically for the battle over the approval of the 2014 accounts, even if the TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) approves the opinion recommending rejection. A precious recess, which the government should use to catch its breath, because August promises to be eventful: in the unlucky month of Brazilian politics, the TCU will vote on the opinion regarding the accounts, and the opposition will try to fuel the anti-government demonstrations scheduled for the 17th. If the government has managed to lower the political temperature with the respite of the recess, they will have less chance of success. For any maneuver to remove Dilma, the opposition continues to believe that the "people in the streets" factor is still missing. But real people, not just the right-wing groups that led the last protests.