Electoral landscape in São Paulo
What Haddad needs now is to focus his efforts on presenting a program that brings São Paulo into the 21st century and that engages with the hopes and expectations of young people.
The most recent survey conducted by Datafolha to gauge the voting intentions of São Paulo voters in the municipal election this October confirmed the growth potential of the candidacy of former Minister of Education, Fernando Haddad.
According to a survey by the institute, Haddad's support more than doubled compared to the previous survey, conducted in early March, rising from 3% to 8% in the preference of São Paulo voters. This rise does not surprise me, as I know the strength of the PT's electoral base in the capital, of our activism, of our ability to dialogue with the people—factors confirmed in each election by the 30% that have taken us to the second round.
Starting in July, with the beginning of the campaign, when Haddad becomes better known and closer to voters—according to the poll, half of voters still don't know him—this growth should intensify. The basis for such growth lies in the two governments that the PT has already held in the city—with Luiza Erundina, now in the PSB which supports Haddad, and Marta Suplicy.
These governments, combined with the party's experience in the federal government—with Lula and now President Dilma Rousseff—support a city project that puts São Paulo back on the path to its potential: a dynamic, cosmopolitan, supportive, and vibrant city that renews itself constantly. This project is being debated with society to build a solid and innovative government program.
Former governor José Serra, according to the same poll, remained stagnant at 30% of voting intentions. This is a low percentage for a candidate who has already governed the city, is a former governor, and has run twice for President of the Republic. Additionally, Serra is the second most rejected candidate: 32% of those interviewed said they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
The Datafolha poll indicates the limits of the PSDB candidate's ability to garner votes: the population knows Serra, but identifies him as a continuation of Gilberto Kassab's administration. In fact, Kassab assumed the mayoralty because Serra resigned. Both carried out an administration that failed to address the main problems of the city of São Paulo, even worsening the situation.
This was also indicated by the Ibope survey, released in May. The research shows that the rejection of Serra is even higher, reaching 38%.
The other pre-candidates Netinho de Paula (PCdoB), Celso Russomano (PRB), Soninha Francine (PPS) and Gabriel Chalita (PMDB) did not obtain significant growth like Haddad in the Datafolha poll, reinforcing the trend that the PT candidate has the greatest potential for growth, since he has the most airtime on TV programs and a high level of unfamiliarity among voters.
Furthermore, from the perspective of coalitions, it is important to emphasize that the alliances already made with the PSB are very positive and strategic. Despite the problems with defining the vice-presidential candidate, which have already been overcome, the party is a strategic ally at the federal level, and its support is fundamental for victory and the realization of a major transformation in the city.
The alliance with the PP—much desired and later targeted by the PSDB—will also help in building a candidacy with the potential to approve important projects in the City Council, replicating the support that exists for the federal government. This support in the Legislative branch is crucial for the success of a government, as is widely known. And the city of São Paulo is in need of a broad alliance to more quickly pull it out of the backwardness it has suffered under the current administrations.
What Haddad needs now is to focus his efforts on presenting a program that brings São Paulo into the 21st century, especially addressing the areas of education, health, urban mobility, and housing—which Haddad has already identified as two chronic and two acute problems, respectively.
A program that engages with the hopes and expectations of young people, to have an inclusive and sustainable city, with comfortable, fast, and accessible mass transportation, with the consolidation and expansion of public and cultural spaces and leisure and culture in the neighborhoods, dismantling policies that accentuate inequalities within the city. A program that promotes sports, solves once and for all serious issues that have dragged on for a long time, such as pollution and flooding in the Tietê River, and traffic that steals time that people could use for other activities.
The decline in the quality of healthcare, the scarce and poorly planned transportation, and the universalization of daycare are problems that can be addressed together with the federal and state governments. Therefore, we need a mayor who will position São Paulo on the world stage as an expression of diverse ethnicities, races, cultures, and religions, reclaiming its vocation as a cosmopolitan and avant-garde metropolis in the country. This is the direction the city hopes for in the next election campaign.
José Dirceu, 66, is a lawyer, former Chief of Staff, and member of the PT's National Directorate.