Population approves of Dilma's "clean-up"

The "clean sweep" promoted by President Dilma Rousseff in the Ministry of Transport may harm governability, but it is considered by political scientists as a "necessary evil" to end the cycle of crises affecting the Presidential Palace. According to analysts interviewed for this report, the broad allied base and the consequent competition for positions in the government obliges the president to act quickly and impose technical criteria for appointments.

While Dilma's style may bother her allies, she could emerge stronger with the support of public opinion. "This support may shield her in some way, but she needs to be careful because her base could become eroded," assessed political scientist and Insper professor Carlos Melo.

Analysts agree that, by taking drastic measures in this area, the president is trying to avoid repeating the crisis that dragged on for almost a month in the episode involving former Chief of Staff Antonio Palocci. "She is giving quick responses so as not to lose the battle with public opinion, especially with the middle class, which is a sector sensitive to these issues," said political scientist and researcher at PUC and FGV in São Paulo, Marco Antônio Carvalho Teixeira. In his view, in this way, the government manages to neutralize criticism from the opposition, which has not yet been able to define its focus of action. "She is learning, and each crisis teaches her a little more," he concluded.

According to Carlos Melo, the crisis experienced by Dilma's government indicates the failure of the coalition presidentialism model that has been in place since José Sarney's administration, where the president has a majority in Congress, distributes positions among allies, and hands over ministries "lock, stock, and barrel." "I think there's an exhaustion of the political base model. Either the president moves towards a rearrangement or she'll be constantly managing conflicts within her base," he stated. Melo believes the accusations left Dilma with no other option. "She had no choice but to act this way (firing the entire top leadership of the ministry). The government cannot remain hostage to crises generated by its political base. And when the war begins, there's no alternative but to clean house," he concluded.

Leadership

According to political scientist Rubens Figueiredo, after being governed by a president with the profile of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – with great political leadership skills and public support – the country now has an administrator who acts in a republican manner. "She is acting correctly, as a republican president would. For a long time, accusations in the media had no consequences. With Dilma, things have returned to normal," he praised.

Figueiredo states that, by indicating to society that there is no collusion in her government, Dilma is getting closer to public opinion. "She has the democratic institutions on her side, which view this action (dismissals) favorably, and this may even restore some credibility (in the government)," he analyzed.

While the "clean-up" at the Ministry of Transport may be good for putting things in "order," it could have the opposite effect on the relationship between the government and its base, since the president does not have a conciliatory profile. "Not everything that is good for the country is good for the government," warned Figueiredo. "Dilma's political gesture is not unifying, but on the other hand it may show that Brazil has leadership and that this leadership prioritizes legal and administrative issues over political ones," he emphasized.

According to analysts, the PR party is the big loser in this episode. The party claimed the position but was unable to nominate a replacement with characteristics opposite to those of former minister Alfredo Nascimento. "The PR doesn't have a name with that technical profile and found itself unable to move in that direction. The PR has lost its legitimacy to claim the position, so it's time for the PR to take a few steps back," said Carvalho Teixeira.

With such a broad allied base, political scientists predict more clashes and new opportunities for Dilma to assemble a government increasingly different from her predecessor's. "The care she has to take now is not to appoint people from other parties who might repeat the profile she doesn't want. The problem is that she might exchange more for the same," observed Carvalho Teixeira.