According to Merval, a plebiscite against Dilma is unfeasible.
A columnist for Globo supports the position presented by the president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and says that there is no point in holding a popular consultation if its decisions cannot be used in the 2014 election. "It would be mobilizing a huge public machine and wasting money unnecessarily, since these reforms could not be used from 2016 onwards, as many have suggested," he says.
247 – Globo columnist Merval Pereira has once again expressed his opposition to holding a plebiscite on political reform with a 2014 implementation date. Read more:
Plebiscite not feasible
With elegance and discretion, Cármen Lúcia, president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), from Minas Gerais, showed in the official statement distributed after the meeting with the presidents of the Regional Electoral Courts (TREs) from all over the country the legal and political obstacles to holding the plebiscite on political reform, which in practice make it unfeasible. And further, quoting the poet Carlos Drummond de Andrade, also from Minas Gerais, she warned of the dangers of the path: "Be careful where you walk, for it is upon my dreams that you walk."
The poet's quote was no coincidence; Minister Cármen Lúcia wanted to humanize the TSE's decision, aligning herself with the voice of the streets: "The dream of the Brazilian people is a full and efficient democracy. The judge's duty is to guarantee the voter's path so that the dream can be realized and become their reality."
The TSE (Superior Electoral Court) note highlights two basic problems: it is necessary to pay attention to the deadline of one year before the election, the limit for changing the rules of the game. This limit is one of the entrenched clauses of the Constitution, which cannot be altered. The other problem is that it is not possible to consult the people on issues that require constitutional changes to become reality.
From the list of suggestions submitted yesterday to Congress by President Dilma Rousseff for the popular consultation, the type of electoral system, with proportional or district voting, and the elimination of alternate senators are issues that cannot be included in the plebiscite because they require constitutional amendments.
As the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) note explains, "the Electoral Court is not constitutionally and legally authorized to submit a consultation to the electorate on a subject that they cannot answer."
The deadline for changes to electoral rules ends on October 5th, one year before the 2014 election. Since the Superior Electoral Court has set a minimum period of 70 days for the plebiscite to be viable, from the moment Congress decides to hold it, with the approval of the questions to be asked in the Chamber and the Senate, there would be almost no time left for the new legislation to be approved within the legal timeframe.
As an example, the note defines July 1st as the start of the process, and establishes that the plebiscite could be held from September 8th onwards. In that case, Congress would have around 20 days to draft the new electoral legislation and approve it in both Houses.
Since it's already July 3rd and the process hasn't even begun, it's reasonable to assume that, if Congress were to decide to hold the plebiscite—which already seems out of the question—it would take them several weeks to reach a consensus and formulate the questions.
The TSE (Superior Electoral Court) also warns of another difficulty: holding the plebiscite without it potentially having consequences for the immediately following elections. The statement says that "The Electoral Court is not constitutionally and legally authorized to submit to the electorate a consultation (...) where the formally determined response will have no effect on the subsequent election, which could be a factor in delegitimizing the popular vote."
This means that there's no point in holding a plebiscite if its decisions can't be used in the 2014 election. It would be mobilizing a huge public machine and wasting money unnecessarily, since these reforms couldn't be used from 2016 onwards, as many have suggested. At least not as a consequence of the plebiscite.
There is already a movement, uniting at least the PMDB and PSB parties, to hold the plebiscite on electoral reform in 2014, along with the elections, to be used starting with the 2016 election. This could be the best time, when political parties and voters will be mobilized for the elections.