The first opinion poll released yesterday by Datafolha after the announcement of the alliance between former senator Marina Silva and the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos, brings good news for President Dilma, who remains the overwhelming favorite, and, moreover, shows that the union of the two adversaries has not produced electoral results so far.
There is good news for Marina, too, as she confirms her position as the strongest opponent to the president's reelection, and could reach the second round in both scenarios in which she appears as a candidate.
Furthermore, she is the opposition candidate who poses the most difficulties for President Dilma in a potential second round, even though the president would win in all scenarios.
However, the research shows that Marina does not transfer all her votes to the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos. They go equally to President Dilma and to the opposition candidate Aécio Neves, in the only scenario in which Dilma is elected in the first round.
Former São Paulo governor José Serra is also gaining momentum in his attempt to once again be the PSDB's presidential candidate, as he appears in second place in a scenario where the governor of Pernambuco is the PSB's candidate.
In a head-to-head matchup with Marina, both Serra and Aécio Neves, the likely PSDB candidate, lose. The best-case scenario for Serra is one in which he faces Dilma and Campos, taking the election to a second round, something Aécio cannot achieve in either scenario.
The best-case scenario for President Dilma is the current one, in which Eduardo Campos and Aécio Neves are the opposition candidates. This is the only case in which the president would be re-elected in the first round. It is also the only scenario in which Aécio Neves, from the PSDB party, comes in second place, which doesn't mean much for the party, as it wouldn't be in the second round for the first time in recent years.
Of course, much will still happen before June, the deadline for party conventions to choose their candidates, but the most important news is the confirmation that former senator Marina Silva remains the main opposition candidate, even after the political maneuver she made.
This is a sign that she has retained her supporters, even those who oppose the union with the PSB or, ultimately, her involvement in traditional politics to run for President.
The alliance with Campos, however, was not very useful for Marina, other than giving her the party's nomination to run for President of the Republic, which was, incidentally, the only visible reason for her to join the PSB.
The candidate with the least to celebrate in the polls is Aécio Neves, from the PSDB party, but in the internal dispute with Serra, he has good arguments to predict growth during the campaign. Serra is the most rejected candidate, and also the best known of the opposition; Aécio is only better known than Campos: 78% say they know him, but only 17% know him "very well".
To get an idea
In comparison, Serra is known by 97% of those interviewed, with 40% saying they know him "very well." In contrast, Aécio is only less rejected than Marina, who has the lowest rejection rate and is known by 88% of voters.
The only advantage that emerges from this poll for the governor of Pernambuco is that he is the least known of all the candidates and, therefore, theoretically has a greater chance of growing in popularity as he becomes known nationally.
The current situation shown by the poll reassures President Dilma, who maintained her lead after the first major political move of the early election campaign, and confirms that former Senator Marina Silva is capable of challenging her if she manages to gain traction during the election campaign.
To achieve this, he could have a reasonable party structure with the PSB, which would give him more strength than in 2010, when he ran for the Green Party and had as little TV time as he will have this time.
The increase in TV time is directly linked to the partnerships that can be formed for the election campaign, but the restrictions imposed by Rede Sustentabilidade, such as on representatives of agribusiness, limit the coalitions, which would be broader if Eduardo Campos were running alone.
There is good news for Marina, too, as she confirms her position as the strongest opponent to the president's reelection, and could reach the second round in both scenarios in which she appears as a candidate.
Furthermore, she is the opposition candidate who poses the most difficulties for President Dilma in a potential second round, even though the president would win in all scenarios.
However, the research shows that Marina does not transfer all her votes to the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos. They go equally to President Dilma and to the opposition candidate Aécio Neves, in the only scenario in which Dilma is elected in the first round.
Former São Paulo governor José Serra is also gaining momentum in his attempt to once again be the PSDB's presidential candidate, as he appears in second place in a scenario where the governor of Pernambuco is the PSB's candidate.
In a head-to-head matchup with Marina, both Serra and Aécio Neves, the likely PSDB candidate, lose. The best-case scenario for Serra is one in which he faces Dilma and Campos, taking the election to a second round, something Aécio cannot achieve in either scenario.
The best-case scenario for President Dilma is the current one, in which Eduardo Campos and Aécio Neves are the opposition candidates. This is the only case in which the president would be re-elected in the first round. It is also the only scenario in which Aécio Neves, from the PSDB party, comes in second place, which doesn't mean much for the party, as it wouldn't be in the second round for the first time in recent years.
Of course, much will still happen before June, the deadline for party conventions to choose their candidates, but the most important news is the confirmation that former senator Marina Silva remains the main opposition candidate, even after the political maneuver she made.
This is a sign that she has retained her supporters, even those who oppose the union with the PSB or, ultimately, her involvement in traditional politics to run for President.
The alliance with Campos, however, was not very useful for Marina, other than giving her the party's nomination to run for President of the Republic, which was, incidentally, the only visible reason for her to join the PSB.
The candidate with the least to celebrate in the polls is Aécio Neves, from the PSDB party, but in the internal dispute with Serra, he has good arguments to predict growth during the campaign. Serra is the most rejected candidate, and also the best known of the opposition; Aécio is only better known than Campos: 78% say they know him, but only 17% know him "very well".
To get an idea
In comparison, Serra is known by 97% of those interviewed, with 40% saying they know him "very well." In contrast, Aécio is only less rejected than Marina, who has the lowest rejection rate and is known by 88% of voters.
The only advantage that emerges from this poll for the governor of Pernambuco is that he is the least known of all the candidates and, therefore, theoretically has a greater chance of growing in popularity as he becomes known nationally.
The current situation shown by the poll reassures President Dilma, who maintained her lead after the first major political move of the early election campaign, and confirms that former Senator Marina Silva is capable of challenging her if she manages to gain traction during the election campaign.
To achieve this, he could have a reasonable party structure with the PSB, which would give him more strength than in 2010, when he ran for the Green Party and had as little TV time as he will have this time.
The increase in TV time is directly linked to the partnerships that can be formed for the election campaign, but the restrictions imposed by Rede Sustentabilidade, such as on representatives of agribusiness, limit the coalitions, which would be broader if Eduardo Campos were running alone.