Lula already has 25 million more votes than Bolsonaro.
Former president is on track for a first-round victory, according to Ipec poll.
247 - Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva already has 25 million more votes than Jair Bolsonaro. This calculation was made by Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL), following an Ipec poll that showed Lula with 52% of valid votes and a trend towards a first-round victory. Check it out and learn more:
BRASILIA (Reuters) – Two weeks before the first round of elections, a new Ipec poll released this Monday showed a trend of widening the lead of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who reached 52% of valid votes and could win the election in the first round.
According to the poll, Lula showed a positive fluctuation of 1 percentage point in voting intentions in one week, going from 46% to 47%, while President and candidate for re-election Jair Bolsonaro (PL) remained stable at 31%. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.
When only valid votes are taken into account, excluding blank and null votes, which determine the election result, Lula went from 51% to 52%, while Bolsonaro went from 35% to 34%.
Conducted between Saturday and Sunday, the new survey was carried out amidst Bolsonaro's trip to the Queen Elizabeth funeral ceremonies and at a time when the president's campaign is increasing its attacks against Lula in electoral propaganda.
On the other hand, Lula's campaign seeks to create a wave of strategic voting in an attempt to win the election in the first round.
According to the poll, in a possible second-round scenario, the former president would win the election with a 19-percentage-point advantage -- a week ago, that difference was 17 points. The difference has now widened to 54% to 35%, compared to 53% to 36%.
REJECTION AND SECOND PLATOON
Bolsonaro leads in terms of rejection, maintaining the 50% of respondents who say they will "never" vote for the president, a figure already seen in the last poll. Lula's rejection rate has risen to 33% – down from 35% last Monday.
In the so-called second tier, with scores far behind the two leaders, Ipec registered Ciro Gomes (PDT) stable at 7%, the same as a week ago, while Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) reached 5%, compared to 4% in the previous round. The two are tied within the margin of error.
Those surveyed who intend to cast blank or null votes in the first round represent 5%, compared to 6% last week, while undecided voters or those who did not respond remain at 4%.
According to Ipec, Lula continues to perform best among families with a monthly income of one minimum wage, beneficiaries of federal government income distribution programs, and those with only primary education. He is also preferred by those who identify as Black or mixed-race, Catholics, and among respondents who negatively evaluate the Bolsonaro administration, as well as voters in the Northeast region of Brazil. The survey also found that the Workers' Party candidate is gaining prominence among voters living in municipalities with up to 50 inhabitants.
The current president continues to perform better among male voters, the evangelical segment of the population, and households where no one receives federal government assistance. Those with higher education, those living in the South region, and those who have a positive assessment of his administration are also among the segments in which Bolsonaro fares well.
Ipec also surveyed the government's performance. The administration is rated as bad or terrible by 47%, compared to 45% last week. The percentage of those who rate it as excellent remained at 30%. Another 22% rate the government as average – down from 23% last week.
Led by former members of Ibope Inteligência, Ipec interviewed 3.008 people between September 17th and 18th in 181 municipalities.
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