Lula will run for President, yes.

A more strident "Come back, Lula!" than usual began to be heard since the street protests of June and July caused the political class – and, in particular and with greater force, President Dilma Rousseff – to suffer widespread damage to their image.

At that moment of social upheaval, many saw the President of the Republic as mortally wounded. According to a Datafolha poll released on June 30, her loss of voting intentions in the election race was 21 percentage points, falling from 51% to 30%.

Even Lula lost some support – he went from 55% to 46%. However, even so, he would still defeat all his opponents in the first round.

Marina Silva, who had gained 8 percentage points from Dilma's downfall, rising from 16% to 23% and thus coming close to a technical tie with the president, gained only 2 points in the contest with Lula, therefore within the margin of error of the survey.

In the new Datafolha poll, published on Saturday (August 10), Dilma recovered a quarter of what she had lost in the projection for next year's election race – going from 30% to 35%. Lula also gained 5 points, going from 46% to 51%.

Furthermore, Lula was the only one who saw an increase in spontaneous voting intentions – when the respondent mentions the name of their preferred candidate without being prompted by a list of names. He went from 6% in June to 11% in August.

Lula's entry into the presidential race in place of Dilma, therefore, seems more than logical. This is a view that had been embraced by both members of the Workers' Party and their allies, as well as by opposition members, at least until the president recovered in the latest polls.

Nevertheless, Lula's immense superiority over all his opponents makes him a much safer candidate for the PT than Dilma.

It is a mistake, however, to believe that the best way to take advantage of the former president's electoral superiority would be to replace Dilma with him in the presidential race next year.

When Lula, asked about the electoral race, said he wouldn't get involved because he had never left it, some misunderstood. They confused his political presence in Dilma's government and in the reelection campaign with interference by the former president in the government.

It seems, therefore, that not all of the PT's allies or supporters fully understood Lula's role in the presidential succession. There's no need to ask for his "return" because he will, in fact, be running in the election.

To understand how, one only needs to analyze Lula's much higher voting intentions than any other candidate, and which, in particular, surpass Dilma's by a wide margin.

How is it possible that Dilma only has 35% and the person who nominated her has 51%? If the president has somehow lost credibility, shouldn't the person who got people to vote for her be condemned for the nomination?

It seems that a portion of the electorate has begun to dissociate Dilma from Lula, believing that they are no longer in sync, something that the mainstream political news even insinuates through numerous rumors spread about their relationship since she took office.

Let's not forget that the media recently spread the rumor that Lula had made disparaging statements about his successor. What is more or less evident, therefore, is that there are those who believe that Dilma betrayed the man who enjoys great popular affection.

So, this is how Lula will contest the presidential succession: by supporting Dilma's re-election bid and thus dispelling the view of those who believe that they have distanced themselves and therefore stopped supporting the current president.

It would be a huge mistake to replace Dilma with Lula, as his opponents would try to hold him accountable for the "bad choice," which he wouldn't be able to explain and which could tarnish his political capital. Therefore, all he would have to do was transfer his popularity back to her.

From now until October of next year, therefore, Lula will be increasingly involved in the campaign, in order to publicly support his successor, whom polls suggest part of the electorate believes she has lost.

Ultimately, one can reflect on the fact that as long as Lula is alive and willing to fully engage in nationwide election campaigns, whether as a candidate or a supporter, there will be no one who can challenge him. Datafolha confirmed this premise.