José Serra is the hidden face of the São Paulo mayoral race.

Leonardo Attuch_247 – Anyone who has watched the series “Criminal Minds,” about dangerous minds, knows that many crimes leave a signature. There is almost always a pattern of conduct that reveals the obsessions of the perpetrator. In many recent scandals in Brazil, there has also been a signature and a pattern of conduct. It begins with an operation by the Federal Police, progresses to the selective leaking of investigations, which are used politically, and finally, culminates in a spectacle in the press – preferably in Brazil's largest weekly magazine.

This week, there were eloquent signs of something of the sort. First, a Federal Police operation, Operation Voucher, against fraud in the Ministry of Tourism. Then, the information that the name of one of those arrested – a former president of Embratur – was being kept secret, which further fueled the mystery. Then, the revelation that this name was Mario Moyses, former advisor to Marta Suplicy. Finally, a Veja magazine report, called "Mud in Tourism," which points to Moyses as the mastermind of the entire criminal scheme – although there is no evidence to that effect in the case – and which treats the former mayor of São Paulo as if she were still Minister of Tourism and there were no new head of the ministry, named Pedro Novais. "This time, Serra left his fingerprints," a member of Marta's pre-campaign for mayor of São Paulo told 247. "Which proves that he is the PSDB candidate for mayor."

It might just be a conspiracy theory. But the fact is, there are precedents. Other targets of recent Federal Police operations attribute them to the influence Serra exerts over certain factions within the institution. For example: Paulo Pereira da Silva, president of Força Sindical. In 2010, at the beginning of the presidential campaign, he was the target of a Federal Police operation accusing him of influence peddling at BNDES. At that time, there was debate about whether the PDT would support Serra or Dilma. And Paulinho da Força was encouraging the latter option when he fell into the clutches of the Federal Police. The following weekend, Veja magazine came out with the cover "The Dark Side of the Force," as if the president of the union were some kind of Darth Vader. To whom does Paulinho attribute his operation? "Serra," he told me on one occasion.

A year earlier, during Operation Navalha, which investigated fraud in public works projects, the real target of the operation only appeared a few days after the arrests, when a dialogue surfaced in which one of the detainees mentioned the name of Senator Renan Calheiros. At that time, there was also discussion about whether the PMDB would support Dilma or Serra – and Renan, like Paulinho da Força, was one of the architects of the alliance with the PT. Veja magazine ran several consecutive covers focusing on Renan's removal from office, but was unsuccessful. And to whom does Renan attribute the crusade to overthrow him in 2009? Guess.

Actions that are predominantly political

Not by chance, shortly after Operation Voucher was launched, former minister José Dirceu wrote a forceful article on his blog, reproduced here on 247, condemning the action and denouncing its political purpose: to undermine the political alliance between the PT and PMDB parties. Some saw in the article an attempt to cover up corruption. Others, more attentive, perceived the purpose of revealing what lies behind many Federal Police operations: an undisclosed political interest.

Why be a candidate?

Running in São Paulo in 2012 will be more difficult for José Serra than it was in 2004, when he defeated Marta Suplicy. This time, the polls place her ahead, and the pendulum of rejection has reversed: his has increased; hers has decreased.

That is precisely why many prominent figures in the São Paulo city government and the new PSD, the party of his ally Gilberto Kassab, would prefer that he not be a candidate. Some even say that Kassab would like to bring his party closer and closer to the governing bloc. Also this week, the national president of the PSDB, Sérgio Guerra, came to São Paulo to publicly state that Serra will not be a candidate.

But in politics, what is said almost never happens. And Serra will have to run for office for a simple reason: what will his political future be if he is out of office until 2014? This is further aggravated by the fact that his own party gives him little space – at the last national convention, he did not have the presidency, the general secretariat, or even the leadership of the Teotônio Vilella Institute. For someone who said goodbye to voters, after the 2010 presidential defeat, with a "see you soon," that would be a very long time in ostracism.

Another sign that Serra is moving towards the 2012 race in São Paulo was the recently published profile of Gabriel Chalita in the same Veja magazine. A text of a malice rarely seen in the magazine – and quite feminine, by the way. To whom does Chalita attribute this profile? Guess.

Heavyweights or featherweights?

Elections for mayor of São Paulo have always involved political heavyweights. Names like Jânio Quadros, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Paulo Maluf, Mario Covas, Marta Suplicy, and José Serra himself.

Although the city hall is currently in the hands of Kassab's PSD party, the "Serra faction" is a partner in the administration. In fact, several names that jumped from the PSDB to the PSD were figures close to Serra. Therefore, nothing could be more naive than imagining that the PSDB will enter the 2012 election with electoral neophytes like Bruno Covas or Andrea Matarazzo.

It will be a tough game, which is already evident in the initial moves of the campaign, such as Operation Voucher.