Janine: Dilma and Aécio have weakened.

247 - In an article published this Monday in the newspaper Valor Econômico, Professor Renato Janine Ribeiro, from USP (University of São Paulo), predicts a more heated political contest than previously anticipated in 2014. Read below:

Suspense is growing around 2014.

By Renato Janine Ribeiro

At the beginning of the year, just a few weeks ago, Dilma Rousseff's easy reelection in 2014 seemed certain. The PSDB candidate would be Aécio Neves, who would run not so much to win, but to establish a position with a view to 2018 – also renewing the leadership of the opposition party after three successive defeats of its prominent figures, both from São Paulo. This scenario remains probable, but it is no longer so certain. The chances for both Dilma and Aécio have diminished.

Dilma weakened because problems in the economy – that is, in economic growth – began to cause concern. The economy is the secret to the success of rulers, in a time when voters' confidence in them is reduced to the credit they can obtain when buying goods on credit, which in turn results from the influx of money, increased production, and social inclusion. These conditions may be the result of the ruler's competence – of their "virtù," as Machiavelli would say – but they may also result from a fortunate set of circumstances, which the Florentine thinker called "fortuna." Lula showed "virtù" by not panicking in the face of the 2008 global crisis, not reacting (as the PSDB [Brazilian Social Democracy Party] would have done) with a sharp increase in interest rates – but he also benefited from a fortunate situation, because he did not face the series of global crises that befell his predecessor, FHC [Fernando Henrique Cardoso].

Aécio's position has weakened because, according to "Folha de S. Paulo," Serra is radicalizing his intention to run for president again: he would even leave the PSDB if they don't give him the candidacy. This news shows a potentially divided party, because Aécio would have even less reason to withdraw his name in favor of someone who has already been defeated twice in the presidential election. This weakens Serra, Aécio, and the party.

The economy is the shifting ground of fortune

Dilma is reportedly weak, which is quite curious, not because of her political performance, but because of her economic performance. It's well known that she likes economics; that she prefers a technical, managerial view of issues to a political one. Politics appears to Dilma in its worst sense: that of quid pro quo, of building governability through concessions. In fact, this is how most of the population views politics; perhaps her presidential popularity is due to this coincidence between her way of being and that of the majority of the people. President and people converge on a certain repulsion towards politicians. "Politics," here, is the subordination of the best, and even the good, to the possible. Those with strong values ​​generally feel repugnance for this. This seems to be the case with her. And yet, at this moment Dilma is doing better politically than economically. She doesn't have a strong rival to her right, the left-wing opposition is microscopic, and the environmental cause is very weak, only two years after the avalanche of votes for Marina Silva.

The economy, however, is Dilma Rousseff's forte. The president represents a vision that, curiously, is close to the approach that, years ago, was José Serra's trademark in the internal opposition to the FHC government: the ideal of a developmentalist economy, putting state regulation and the appetite of private actors at the service of a strategy that increases growth and reduces poverty. (Not by chance, I'm playing with the title of the 1975 bestseller that launched FHC and Serra's Cebrap, "São Paulo: Growth and Poverty"). It's no coincidence that I was inspired to write this article after reading an interview with the left-wing economist Carlos Lessa, who was Dilma's professor but also José Serra's best man, and who declares that he voted for the PSDB candidate.

In short, Dilma sees the economy not as an end in itself, but as the best technical instrument for pursuing a policy that is only called leftist because, in our country, the mere purpose of building a middle-class nation sounds radical – and perhaps it is. Now, it is this agenda, which could be common to the greatest possible number of people, which could be the meeting point of "men of goodwill," overcoming the political-partisan agendas of petty interests – this agenda of people who "think about Brazil," to use an expression from then-President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, in a criticism of a Supreme Court ruling – that is at risk. And it is at risk because the economy is a black box.

There's so much talk about competence regarding the economy, but in reality, it's the shifting ground of fortune. Don't they say the markets are "nervous"? Nervousness is the opposite of rationality. Hence, despite Dilma's considerable popularity and political advantage, things have become delicate for her with the low GDP. There's no better sign of this than the potential energy supply crisis. Forget the synonym "light" and think about the strong meaning of the word "energy": that's what we might lack. Strong symbolism, isn't it? And it could be lacking if there's a lack of rain, which doesn't depend on any politician, but on luck. If Dilma has weakened, it's due to strokes of fortune.

And Serra? His game is risky. Fernando Henrique, who supports Aécio, and Alckmin, who doesn't support anyone, seem tired of endorsing their presidential ambitions. The worst thing for Serra would be to be labeled ungrateful to his party colleagues, disloyal to the party, and selfish in his aspiration to the presidency. With that, he might take votes away from Aécio, but he will hardly secure the PSDB nomination and, if he does, he will suffer intense friendly fire. However skillful Serra may be, moving the political chessboard like few others – endowed as he is with much "virtù" – he may be hitting his ceiling. Today, Dilma still beats Aécio, but both are weakened.