Istoé/Sensus: Marina-Aécio tie within the margin of error.

247 - A survey conducted by the Sensus institute and published by Istoé magazine this weekend shows that the spot for the candidate who will face President Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections is not yet guaranteed. With 25% of voting intentions, Marina Silva (PSB) is technically tied with Aécio Neves (PSDB), who has 20,7%. The survey's margin of error is 2,2% plus or minus. Dilma, with 35%, "will only not be in the second round of the contest if there is a nuclear catastrophe affecting her campaign," says the magazine.

Read the full text of the research below:

A draw in the final stretch.
A poll by ISTOÉ/Sensus shows that the presidential election will be decided in the second round and that Aécio and Marina are neck and neck in the final week of the campaign.

Candidates Marina Silva (PSB) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) enter the week leading up to the first round of the presidential elections in a technical tie. This is the main finding of the ISTOÉ/Sensus survey conducted between Sunday the 21st and Friday the 26th. According to the survey, Marina has 25% of the voting intentions and Aécio 20,7%. As the margin of error of the survey is 2,2% plus or minus, both are technically tied in the fight for a place in the second round. President Dilma Rousseff (PT) has 35% and will only not be in the second stage of the dispute if there is a nuclear catastrophe in her campaign. The survey shows that both Dilma and Aécio were successful in the strategies adopted in recent weeks. The president reinforced attacks against Marina, exaggerated the defense of her government, and intensified her public agendas. As a result, she grew 5,3% during the month of September. The senator from Minas Gerais sought to demonstrate the similarities between Dilma and Marina, questioned the veracity of what both presented in their speeches, and positioned himself as the safest alternative to change the course of the country. This strategy earned him a 5,5 percentage point increase in the last 30 days. Marina, on the other hand, opted to portray herself as a victim of what she calls a "defamatory" campaign and adopted an emotional tone both in interviews and on the campaign trail. She failed to explain the contradictions in her speeches and lost 4,5 percentage points in less than a month. "For the first time, we see a technical tie between Marina and Aécio. The senator from Minas Gerais is entering the final stretch with a growth trend, while the former senator is showing a downward trend," says Ricardo Guedes, director of the Sensus Institute.

The survey polled two thousand voters from 24 states and also found a significant increase in the rejection rate of candidate Marina Silva. At the beginning of the month, 22,3% of voters said they would not vote for Marina under any circumstances. Last week, this rate jumped to 33%, surpassing the rejection of the PSDB senator, which varied from 31,5% to 31,9%. The rejection of the president remains around 40%, which, according to Guedes, is an obstacle to her re-election. "The increase in rejection of Marina, already higher than that of Aécio, is another piece of data that allows us to affirm that the possibility of a second round between the PT and PSDB remains open," assesses Guedes. According to him, the PSB candidate entered the race with a strong emotional appeal, but as time passed, voters began to see her candidacy in a more rational way. The survey, conducted in 136 municipalities across five regions, shows that in a potential second round against Aécio, Dilma would garner 43,4% of the vote compared to 38,2% if the election were held now. In a second-round scenario between Dilma and Marina, there would be a tie, with 40,5% for Dilma and 40,4% for Marina.

The trends shown by the latest ISTOÉ/Sensus poll confirm the data collected daily by the campaigns of the three main candidates. Based on these numbers, plans are being drawn up for the days leading up to the first round. Within the PT (Workers' Party), the watchword is to maintain attacks against Marina's candidacy and intensify the mobilization of militants for street demonstrations in the country's main cities. At Dilma's headquarters, there's an assessment that, since the party's main leaders haven't obtained good results in their states, it's necessary to occupy public squares to maintain growth in the final week. PT leaders believe it's possible to emerge from the polls with around 40% of the vote.

In these final days of the campaign before the first round, the PSDB party, led by former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso, is preparing an offensive in the country's largest electoral districts. Aécio, who visited Minas Gerais seven times last week, will spend more time on the streets. In São Paulo, events alongside Governor Geraldo Alckmin will be almost daily. In the state with the largest number of voters, the PSDB leads the race, and the governor is expected to be re-elected in the first round. Aécio's allies also have a chance of winning as early as Sunday, October 5th, in Paraná, Pará, Goiás, and Bahia. According to FHC, it is possible that these regional leaders will be able to transfer a large number of votes to Aécio in the final stretch of the campaign.

In the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party), the proposal is to move away from the defensive to try and stem the loss of votes seen in recent weeks. To that end, there is an effort to avoid contaminating the campaign with the internal division that has been occurring within the party. With weaknesses in regional campaigns, Marina will likely use her final campaign ads and television debates to criticize Dilma's government and the PT/PSDB polarization that has defined presidential races since 1994. Instead of being a victim of attacks from her opponents, Marina will try to position herself as a true third option, echoing the discourse that former Pernambuco governor Eduardo Campos used at the beginning of his campaign.

Although the trends are already in place, according to Ricardo Guedes, it wouldn't be surprising if polls this week show quite pronounced shifts in voter sentiment. He believes that, unlike in previous elections, voters are only now, in the final stretch, beginning to pay closer attention to the candidates, and their choices haven't followed a partisan logic. "Brazilians want change, but they don't want to embark on adventures," he concludes.