Institutions are prepared to confront Bolsonaro if he contests the election results.

BRASILIA (Reuters) - While President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) prepares the groundwork to contest a possible defeat in the October elections, the courts, congressional leadership, business groups, and civil society are closing ranks to reinforce confidence in the integrity of the vote.

Even the leaders of the Armed Forces, now more involved in the government than at any other time since the military dictatorship between 1964 and 1985, are offering private assurances to former colleagues that they do not want to participate in a breakdown of the democratic order, according to former officials with close ties to the military leadership.

The result of this equation is a far-right populist incendiary who is trailing in the polls, with little institutional room to maneuver to derail the electoral process, but with enough radical supporters to fill the streets with furious demonstrations if he challenges the electoral process as many expect.

"There is one certainty in this election: President Bolsonaro will only accept one result, which is his victory. Any other result will be contested. That is an absolute certainty. The only question is how much tension President Bolsonaro will create around this issue and how he will contest it," said Camilo Onoda Caldas, director of the Luiz Gama Institute and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Coimbra in Democracy and Rights.

When pressed in interviews, Bolsonaro says he will respect the election result as long as the voting is "clean and transparent," without defining any criteria.

Many believe this leaves room for turbulence after the vote. Election officials warn of a revolt inspired by the invasion of the United States Capitol in Washington last year if Bolsonaro loses to former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), as polls indicate.

For over a year, Bolsonaro has been insisting on his unsubstantiated theory that the polls are lying, that Brazil's electronic voting system is open to fraud, and that the ministers of the Supreme Federal Court, who serve on the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and oversee the elections, could rig the vote in favor of Lula.

Even one of Bolsonaro's campaign advisors, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely, cannot rule out violent post-election protests if the president contests the results: "Bolsonaro is absolutely unpredictable. There could be problems."

Bolsonaro has shown that he can easily mobilize tens of thousands of supporters, as he did in the September 7th demonstrations this month. The protesters cited the large crowds as evidence that opinion polls are distorted and that electoral fraud is Lula's only hope.

"If Lula wins, the certainty of fraud will be very high. Then the population will really be outraged, and an outraged population gets out of control. Only God knows what can happen," said Winston Lima, leader of pro-Bolsonaro rallies in Brasília and a reserve captain in the Navy.

Determined to avoid this, major Brazilian institutions spent the past year trying to get ahead of Bolsonaro.

Congress voted against his push for paper ballots. Election officials created a "transparency commission" with technology experts, civic groups, and government agencies to review security measures and endorse best election practices. A record number of foreign observers are coming to the country to monitor the election.

Business leaders also drafted public statements expressing their confidence in the electoral system. Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli told reporters in São Paulo that the business community understood that a break with democracy would be "economic suicide," given the risk of sanctions from Europe and other Western powers.

Allies like the United States have also signaled publicly and privately what they expect from the second-largest democracy in the Western Hemisphere.

The director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Bill Burns, told Bolsonaro's advisors last year that he should stop casting doubt on Brazil's electronic voting system, Reuters reported in May.

International election experts have praised Brazil's electronic voting machines for ending widespread fraud in the counting of paper ballots before 1996, with no cases of fraud detected since then, despite Bolsonaro's accusations.

TRUMP'S MANUAL

The issue has bothered many in Washington who see Bolsonaro following in the footsteps of former US President Donald Trump, whose unfounded allegations of fraud in the 2020 US elections were echoed by the Brazilian leader even after the Capitol storming.

Bolsonaro was one of the last world leaders to acknowledge the electoral victory of US President Joe Biden. The Brazilian president warned that the consequences of Brazil's election this year could be worse than the consequences of the contested vote in the US.

However, while Trump managed to trigger a series of lawsuits and political pressure on the authorities responsible for counting votes, voting in Brazil is administered by federal electoral courts whose judges will not hesitate to confront Bolsonaro.

In particular, Bolsonaro's attacks on the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) and its president, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre Moraes, seem to have only strengthened the resolve of the judge and his colleagues.

Even though Moraes has acted more unilaterally than some of his predecessors, he enjoys broad support among his fellow Supreme Court justices, according to two people familiar with the institution.

Bolsonaro criticized Moraes for overseeing an investigation into his supporters, who allegedly spread defamation and disinformation online. Last year, he called Moraes a "bandit" and said he might refuse to obey his decisions.

In the corridors of power in Brasília, discomfort with the judge's harsh tactics took a back seat, while his peers and most politicians presented a united front in defense of the courts and the electoral process.

When Moraes took over the leadership of the TSE last month, his speech praising the electronic voting system was met with a standing ovation from an audience that included four former presidents, about 20 current state governors, and a number of party leaders. Bolsonaro did not applaud.

MILITARY IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Even the Army officers tasked by Bolsonaro with investigating alleged vulnerabilities in the Brazilian electoral system were pleased with Moraes' openness to their requests since he took over the TSE, according to a high-ranking military official who declined to be identified for reasons of military protocol.

Invited by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) to join its transparency commission, the Brazilian Armed Forces have played an unprecedented role in investigating the security of the country's electoral system.

Critics question the prominence of the military in the process, especially since their concerns echoed Bolsonaro's rhetoric about potential fraud. The president, a former army captain, filled his cabinet with former military officers while telling supporters that the Armed Forces are "on our side."

However, the Armed Forces moved closer to establishing a "parallel count" on election night, as Bolsonaro suggested. Instead, military representatives plan to conduct spot checks of the voting machines, comparing paper readings from a few hundred polling stations with the results sent to the TSE server.

It is an unusual task for the Armed Forces in Brazil's young democracy, but the military insists it is not a sign of political ambitions.

Former Defense Minister Raul Jungmann dismissed any risk of a coup, contrasting the country today with Brazil in 1964: the military coup that year was openly supported by many of Brazil's business elites, middle-class families, churches, and mainstream media, a far cry from the current environment.

"The Defense Minister fully agreed, which was a surprise to the generals, who see his stance as a drain on the forces. But from the High Command's perspective, there is no possibility of them getting involved in such an adventure," said a veteran politician in regular conversations with military leaders.

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