Lula's government sees Trump's offensive for regime change in Brazil.
The Brazilian government believes that pressure from the US president goes beyond simply defending Bolsonaro.
247 - The Brazilian government interprets the sanctions and tariffs imposed by the United States as part of a "regime change" strategy and believes that President Donald Trump aims to directly interfere in the national political scene. This information was published by [source name/source - context needed]. Folha de S. Paul and indicates that the Planalto Palace believes that pressure from Washington is not limited to the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the Supreme Federal Court, scheduled for September.
According to Report by Patrícia Campos MeloLula's aides believe that Trump is acting to ensure that a candidate ideologically aligned with him is present in the 2026 presidential race. This assessment also includes the expectation that, in the event of a Lula victory, the United States may question the legitimacy of the Brazilian election.
External pressure and ideological alignment
At the heart of the Planalto's concern are recurring statements by Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), who has been repeating for months that if Bolsonaro is not a candidate, the US will not recognize the elections in Brazil. The government's interpretation is that Trump is trying to reaffirm Latin America as his sphere of influence, supporting right-wing allies and attacking progressive leaders in the region.
An example of this was the stance taken by US diplomacy in recent episodes: on one hand, criticism of the imprisonment of former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe and support for the defense made by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who accused judges of acting in an "instrumentalized" manner; on the other hand, the statement by Trump's nominee for ambassador to Argentina, Peter Lamelas, against Cristina Kirchner. "If she weren't a politician, she would be in prison. She is under house arrest due to some kind of political favoritism," Lamelas stated.
Brazilian strategy to avoid isolation
To avoid regional isolation similar to that imposed by the so-called Lima Group in 2017 — a bloc of right-wing countries that advocated the fall of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela — Brazil is also seeking to create links with center-right governments. The visit of Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa to Brasília on Monday (18) is seen as part of this strategy.
With Unasur dissolved and Celac paralyzed, the Planalto (Brazilian presidential palace) is betting on strengthening Mercosur and OTCA (Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization) to discuss common agendas, such as climate and energy. Even without political rapprochement with the government of Javier Milei, economic cooperation with Argentina remains, especially in the purchase of gas.
