Lula's government is close to obtaining an absolute majority in Congress, says analyst.
The president had an unfavorable start to his term, inheriting the Bolsonaro legacy, having to deal with the crisis between Lira and Pacheco, as well as with the president of the Central Bank.
Eduardo Maretti, Rebuildables - The institutional imbroglio pitting Arthur Lira (PP-AL) against Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate respectively, is worrying the Lula government. However, the scenario also has positive aspects, from the point of view of the maturing of political relations since the inauguration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. This is because the head of government assumed the presidency under quite unfavorable conditions, according to journalist and political consultant Antônio Augusto de Queiroz, former director of documentation at the Inter-Union Department of Parliamentary Advisory (Diap).
He recalls that, firstly, Lula assumed office without an effective transition, since former president Jair Bolsonaro refused to participate in the process and left the country on December 30th. As a result, a large part of the responsibilities of the presidency were in Arthur Lira's office. The president and his allies even had to adopt measures to replenish the budget for 2023, already with the Transition Amendment in place in December.
“Taking on the role under these circumstances is no easy task,” says Queiroz. “In this scenario, it was even advisable for the government not to rush into anything, because it would be working in a minefield. First, it had to know where it was stepping,” he adds. That's what Lula did. This was partly because he began his term under pressure from the urgency of building a parliamentary base, which is not normally easy, and managing a series of powers and responsibilities of the President of the Republic.
Lula also has to deal with two figures who behave almost as if they were presidents of the Republic: Arthur Lira himself and the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto. "It's delicate, because they are men linked to the market, which acts on expectations, and their opinions contaminate the market; it's necessary to carefully consider what you say," advises the analyst.
If, as Arthur Lira said earlier this month, Lula didn't even have a majority to approve mere bills or provisional measures, which require a simple majority, "today it's safe to say that the government does approve proposals by simple majority," according to Queiroz. He believes the Planalto Palace is "very close" to having an absolute majority. But it needs to accelerate the remaining appointments for the second tier of government.
Tax Framework
The fiscal framework is a supplementary bill. Therefore, it requires an absolute majority, half plus one of the votes of the entire Chamber, or 257 deputies. "In terms of constitutional amendments, the only matter that the government has that is most urgent is not a government issue, but a state issue: tax reform," Queiroz points out. So much so that the government is investing not in its own text, but in the alternatives from Congress itself that have already been extensively discussed, PECs 45 (in the Chamber) and 110 (in the Senate).
“Now, in the next 30 days, the real challenge will be,” assesses the analyst. The Planalto Palace needs to pave the way for the approval of 13 provisional measures, some of which absolutely cannot expire, which happens if they are not voted on within 120 days from the start of the legislature in February.
Priority provisional measures
These include the provisional measures that reorganize ministries; the one that creates the Bolsa Família program; the provisional measure for the Minha Casa Minha Vida program; and the provisional measure that reinstates the tie-breaking vote in favor of the Federal Revenue Service in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF). These should be voted on following the normal procedural rules for provisional measures, starting with the formation of joint committees. The others can be transformed into bills under an expedited procedure.
The dispute between Lira and Pacheco became explosive precisely because of this procedure. By agreement, the passage of Provisional Measures through committees during the pandemic was suspended, and they began to be voted on more quickly, with the Speaker of the House having the power to appoint rapporteurs. For Pacheco, the pandemic is over, and this procedure no longer makes sense, especially since the Constitution requires the formation of committees.
Lira resists
Lira had to concede to this argument, but went on to say that the Chamber should then have more representatives than senators (today there is parity, with 12 parliamentarians from each house). He lost power when he found himself without the secret budget and is trying not to lose any more power.
The Speaker of the House, however, has no alternative but to cooperate with the government. He cannot allow measures such as those related to Bolsa Família and Minha Casa Minha Vida, for example, to fail. He would be severely compromised.
In comparing the current and previous governments, Lula's situation isn't that different in terms of the processing of provisional measures. Bolsonaro's first provisional measure, which resulted in a smooth and amicable transition with Michel Temer, was voted on May 9, 2019, well after his inauguration, Queiroz recalls.