we were six

In the reality show of Brazilian politics, the week was marked by important eliminations. The first character eliminated was José Serra, who, after a long period of suspense, made the most predictable decision. He will remain in the PSDB party, where he will have room, at most, to run for the Federal Senate in 2014. Of all the participants in the "house," he was the one who garnered the least sympathy, and his departure is not exactly a surprise.

Then it was Marina Silva's turn. Although charismatic, she didn't learn the most basic rules of the game. The first of these is that only those who are able to fulfill basic political requirements, such as organizing a party, reach the end. Faced with the cold letter of the law, her appeals for the Superior Electoral Court to adopt the so-called "Marina Silva way" were to no avail. To the outside public, she demonstrated a lack of competence. And she will never be able to claim that she lacked the time and resources to set up her Rede party.

Joaquim Barbosa, as a judge, has a legal privilege and can join a political party until March of next year. Even so, his name is increasingly less remembered as a real alternative for power. Irritable, the minister has become known for weekly controversies – the most recent being his attempt to remove the wife of a journalist who works at the Supreme Federal Court. An attitude incompatible with someone who might be dreaming of higher office.

Thus, today, three characters remain in the house: Dilma Rousseff, Aécio Neves, and Eduardo Campos. She, comfortably installed in the master suite, watches from above as her adversaries stumble. In the coming weeks, she will likely be congratulated with polls that once again give her a comfortable first-round victory. Numbers that will be interpreted by politicians in every state and will facilitate the construction of their alliances and regional platforms.

In this context, the next target of the offensive will be Eduardo Campos, and the Presidential Palace will do everything to make him drop out of the race. Struck by the sabotage of the Gomes brothers in Ceará, Campos saw his northeastern base divided and will have to fight hard to rebuild his army.

The PT (Workers' Party) is clearly working to ensure that the 2014 election has a first round that feels like a second round, meaning with only two candidates: Dilma and Aécio. The bet is that, in this scenario, everything will be resolved by October of next year. The PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party), in turn, was encouraging other candidacies to try and guarantee a second round. But if the new scenario is unfavorable, at least it guarantees an early polarization in the traditional political rivalry between the PT and PSDB.

* This column, originally published in Istoé magazine, was finalized before the agreement between Eduardo Campos and Marina Silva, which aims to break the polarization described above.