Will he emerge from the election stronger or weaker than he went in?
The polls haven't been encouraging for Eduardo Campos from Pernambuco; after registering 8% in the Datafolha poll, he only got 7,2% in the Istoé/Sensus survey; yesterday, during a walk in São Paulo, he was practically anonymous and was even called "Aécio Campos"; the day before, his cousin Marília Arraes declared her vote for President Dilma Rousseff, and he could even lose in Pernambuco to candidate Armando Monteiro, who leads with more than 40% of the voting intentions; a very bad scenario for someone who could be the candidate of a PT-PSB alliance to succeed President Dilma Rousseff in 2018.
247 - A few days ago, former Pernambuco governor Eduardo Campos made a revelation. He said that the PT (Workers' Party) offered him support in the 2018 presidential election if he decided not to run in 2014. The offer was real. One of the most ardent defenders of this idea was the governor of Bahia, Jaques Wagner, who believed that, after four consecutive PT terms in the presidency (including, of course, the re-election of President Dilma Rousseff), it would be time to renew the center-left alliance that has been governing the country since 2003.
Campos, naturally, did not accept. He launched his presidential campaign, breaking the historic alliance with the PT (Workers' Party), and obtained the support of former senator Marina Silva. So far, however, the results have been very discouraging. latest Datafolha pollHe only obtained 8% of the voting intentions. Istoé Sensus survey, it fell below that, registering only 7,2%. With this, the idea solidifies that the second round, if there is one, will indeed be, once again, between the PT and PSDB parties, with the contest involving President Dilma Rousseff and Senator Aécio Neves.
The former governor of Pernambuco has been performing so poorly that yesterday, while campaigning in São Paulo, he was practically unknown. Some confused him with former mayor Gilberto Kassab. Others called him Aécio Campos, as if he were a kind of generic version of the PSDB candidate (read more). here).
To make matters worse, the situation in his home state is delicate. His cousin, councilwoman Marília Arraes, declared her vote for President Dilma. "I don't think Eduardo's candidacy is the best for the country," she stated (read more). hereThis reasoning aligns with what Senator Armando Monteiro (PTB-PE), who, allied with the PT, leads the polls for the Pernambuco state government with over 40% of the vote, has already pointed out. "Many people from Pernambuco realize that he launched himself into a personal project and didn't make the best decision for the interests of the people of Pernambuco," he says. In Pernambuco, Campos' candidate, Paulo Câmara, is also struggling in the polls, as is his political mentor.
Given this scenario, the question that arises is clear: will Eduardo Campos emerge from the 2014 presidential race stronger or weaker than he entered it? Before the election, the PSB held, in addition to Pernambuco, the government of Ceará. Since the Gomes brothers rebelled against Campos' candidacy, both migrated to the Pros party. Furthermore, the party also controlled important ministries, such as the Ministry of National Integration.
The former governor of Pernambuco will not have much room in a possible second Dilma government, he will not be Aécio Neves's preferred ally, and he even risks losing his main state governorships. Not to mention the fact that he himself, if he doesn't stage a spectacular surge in the polls, will be out of office, even though he had a guaranteed election to the Senate.