And now, Marina?
The trial is not yet over, but the majority of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) has already made it clear that the injunction against the processing of the bill that inhibits the creation of political parties will be overturned; the decision casts doubt on the creation of Rede Sustentabilidade, Marina Silva's party; the former senator was in the front row of the STF during the three days of the trial and said she already has the 500 signatures to found the party, but the climate of uncertainty about the future of the mobilization may lead her to return to the Green Party (PV), to enable a presidential candidacy in 2014; former congressman Fernando Gabeira is already working on it.
247 Although the verdict has been postponed until next week, the position of the majority of the Supreme Federal Court justices is clear: the injunction granted by Justice Gilmar Mendes, which prevented the processing of the bill that inhibits the creation of political parties, should be overturned.read moreWorse for Marina Silva. The former senator, who said on Wednesday that she already has the 500 signatures needed to found her Sustainability Network party, remains in a climate of uncertainty about the future of her new party, which could lead her to return to the Green Party (PV), a clearer option to make her presidential candidacy viable in 2014.
Ministers such as the president of the Supreme Federal Court, Joaquim Barbosa, and Rosa Weber made it clear in Thursday's ruling that they are against the STF interfering in the legislative process, but that they would vote against the merits of the bill if it is enacted in the form approved by the Chamber of Deputies -- the process was interrupted by Gilmar's injunction before the Senate vote.
In other words, if, after becoming law, the proposal that prevents the creation of new parties is challenged in the Supreme Court, it will likely be considered unconstitutional – since it treats parties differently within the same legislature. The problem for Marina is the uncertainty generated by the Supreme Court's decision this Thursday. Until it is approved and enacted, the bill defending party loyalty is legitimate and casts doubt on the founding of the Sustainability Network. And the presidential race has already begun.
The situation could lead Marina to become a presidential candidate for her former party, the PV, in a move already being orchestrated by former congressman Fernando Gabeira. This new situation would completely change the landscape of the electoral succession, as the former senator would lose the trump card of the "purity" of her own party, above good and evil, better than all others, as Rede has been presented.
On the other hand, with Thursday's Supreme Court decision, Marina has a defeat to capitalize on. The former Environment Minister can claim that her right to found a party was violated and bring that asset to the Green Party (PV) to "moralize" the party she left because she disagreed with its practices. For someone who lost ground to Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG) in the latest Datafolha poll, the defeat could end up becoming an advantage.