Dilma under pressure
For the first time, the president faces real difficulties, but nothing indicates that she will kiss the cross, as the opposition, led by FHC, wants.
In Brasília, indigenous people invade the Funai (National Indian Foundation) building and demand the demarcation of their lands. In Congress, the Speaker of the House, Henrique Eduardo Alves (PMDB-RN), requests the release of budget amendments, while his allies show increasing anxiety about the early start of the electoral process and the scarcity of resources for their own re-elections. In the financial market, the Bovespa stock exchange plummets, while the dollar soars, fueling inflationary pressures. In the streets, protesters vandalize buses, demanding a reduction in fares. And if all this weren't enough, a Datafolha poll shows a decline in presidential popularity.
Like in Caetano Veloso's song, something is out of order. The Dilma government is facing intense pressure and, for the first time, the Planalto Palace will have to confront several parallel and simultaneous wars. Until now, the difficulties in the political field, stemming from the president's own style, had been cushioned by favorable economic conditions, which guaranteed high popularity and kept allies under Dilma's safe orbit. In this new environment, which combines the deteriorating external climate, internal social tensions, and the rising dollar, Dilma's fortress appears less invulnerable.
Upon seeing a small crack in the castle, former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso gave the opposition's battle cry two weeks ago, predicting that Dilma would have to quickly "kiss the cross"—which should be interpreted as raising interest rates, tightening fiscal policy, and, in short, curbing the pace of economic activity, thus making her fortress even more vulnerable. Following this, once again, Finance Minister Guido Mantega was the target of orchestrated attacks both inside and outside the country, in a new attempt to have his head delivered on a platter.
The question is whether or not the Presidential Palace will blink. By all indications, Dilma seems convinced that her economic policy is heading in the right direction and that, soon, the numbers will show falling inflation, a recovery in economic activity, and public finances already in order, without the need for new fiscal packages. Cool heads and temperance seem to be the watchwords for navigating the first serious turbulence of the Dilma government.