Does Dilma win or lose with two-in-one candidacies?
At this very moment, President Dilma could be facing a scenario with five candidates for the presidency: herself, Aécio Neves (PSDB), José Serra (PPS), Eduardo Campos (PSB), and Marina Silva (Rede); Aécio managed to keep Serra within the PSDB and Campos won over Marina; now, only three contenders remain; in the latest Ibope poll, Dilma was already winning in the first round; and now?
247 - In the latest Ibope poll, conducted in September, President Dilma Rousseff was once again winning in the first round. She had 38% of the voting intentions, compared to 16% for Marina Silva, 11% for Aécio Neves, and 4% for Eduardo Campos.
For this very reason, the opposition encouraged other candidacies. José Serra, for example, would run for the PPS. And columnists in the conservative media strongly advocated for the approval of Marina Silva's Rede Sustentabilidade party, so that there could be greater political competition in 2014.
Thus, with five candidates (Dilma, Marina, Aécio, Serra, and Campos), a second round would be practically inevitable.
Midweek saw the first elimination. José Serra was convinced by Aécio Neves to remain in the PSDB. And even if he doesn't make an effort for the politician from Minas Gerais, the PSDB is currently in a "two-for-one" situation.
This Saturday saw the second elimination, with Marina Silva joining the PSB party, where she is expected to be Eduardo Campos's running mate (read more). hereAgain, another "two-in-one" situation.
Where Serra and Marina's votes will go, nobody knows. But it's unlikely that all of them will be incorporated by Aécio and Eduardo – names that have become stronger, but it's still unknown whether to the point of forcing a second round.
The answers will come in the next few weeks, with new election polls. This time, with only three candidates: Dilma, Aécio, and Eduardo. Did the president win or lose with this new scenario?