Dilma: Is the honeymoon over?

Leonardo Attuch_247 – More than 100 days, six months, in short, all the milestones conventionally defined as the honeymoon period between a government and society, have passed. Dilma Rousseff has navigated this brief interregnum remarkably well. With her "clean-up," she already enjoys a 71% approval rating among Brazilians, according to a Vox Populi poll. Lula, unbeatable, reached 80% at the end of his term. But Dilma's approval rating surpasses that of her predecessors, such as Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Lula himself at the beginning of his second terms.

Dilma achieved success with a relatively simple formula: continuity in the economy (stability with growth), rigor in appointments and dismissals within the public sector (her "clean-up"), and a demeanor appropriate to the office (institutional composure). With this, she especially appeals to those who felt that Lula trampled on institutions with his charismatic leadership style, always ready to place himself above all other branches of power.

Another factor that contributed to Dilma's popularity in this initial phase of her government was her progressive distancing from her predecessor. This distancing began before her inauguration, when she did not reappoint Celso Amorim to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and signaled that she would pursue a more pragmatic and less ideological foreign policy, with respect for international human rights.

Some saw, in the Dilma era, a relaxation of the radicalism of the Lula government, both in foreign policy and in relations with the media.

But Dilma, by recalling Celso Amorim, may be taking a decisive – and perhaps irreversible – step in another direction. What does she gain by appointing to such a strategic ministry precisely the name that would least please the commanders of the three Armed Forces? And if we add to this the statement by former President Lula (“it is not up to the military to like or dislike an appointment”), what is the message? That Dilma has resorted to confrontation. She has decided to rein them in. She acted like VAR-Palmares. And even though she called the three commanders to reassure them, saying that there will be no change to the Amnesty Law, a crisis in the barracks may already have been orchestrated.

Crisis also in Congress.

The choice of Celso Amorim also reveals a pattern in President Dilma's choices. A "I'm the one in charge here" style. Franklin Martins and José Genoíno conveyed to the president the information that the military was satisfied with Jobim's management, whose continued presence was indefensible. But other interlocutors also brought more moderate names such as the Minister of Justice, José Eduardo Cardozo, and Congressman Aldo Rebelo – a true nationalist, and also a communist, who commands the respect of the military, unlike Celso Amorim. In other words: if Dilma wanted a good negotiator to coordinate the three military ministries, she would have Cardozo; if she wanted to steer the Defense area towards the nationalist left, Rebelo would be the best option.

The pattern was similar to the change in the Ministry of Institutional Relations, when Luiz Sérgio was moved to fisheries. The parties met and the PT (Workers' Party) closed ranks around Congressman Cândido Vaccarezza, who is a skilled negotiator. In yet another demonstration of the "I'm the boss here" style, Dilma passed over Vaccarezza and appointed Ideli Salvatti. Gleisi Hoffmann was also a personal choice of President Dilma.

Result: the atmosphere in the National Congress today is one of ambush. Several foxes are lying in wait. Six ministers from Dilma's government have been summoned to give explanations. A former allied party, the PR, which is a "pot full of grievances," and whose former minister, Alfredo Nascimento, says that "it's not trash."

It may be that Dilma doesn't need the National Congress and that Brazil may no longer need the National Congress and may move towards a direct democracy with two pilots – Dilma managing the machinery of government and Lula, free to fly, engaging with the masses.

But it's a new experience. It may or may not work out.