Will Dilma climb the mountain of popularity again?
In two months, the graphs radically reverse in evaluations of Dilma Rousseff's government; a surge from bad/terrible to 43% and a plunge from excellent/good to 23% reflect an adverse moment; other leaders are also suffering, but attention is focused on the president; image gains after re-election have been lost; recovery will depend on what happens at Petrobras, in particular, and in the economy in general; will Dilma have the conditions for a new upswing?
247 - In just two months, President Dilma Rousseff's popularity ratings have reversed like a seesaw. The "excellent/good" rating, which was at 44% in December, has now dropped to 23%, while the "bad/terrible" rating, which had reached 24%, has soared to 44%. The "fair" rating, in the middle, remained at 23%, a margin that indicates room for recovery. But how will Dilma fill the political void and climb back up the mountain of popularity?
The objective conditions are not the best. At Petrobras, it is still unknown how far the crisis triggered by the corruption scandals can go, but finally the president has made her move to stop the bleeding. A good part of the recovery of the head of the Palácio do Planalto will depend on the work of the golden duo from Banco do Brasil, Aldemir Bendini and Ivan Monteiro, the new president and finance director of the state-owned company. An immediate scenario for a new awakening of the company is not foreseen, but at least stopping the series of bad news stories will already be a good thing for Dilma.
The same applies to the economy. Minister Joaquim Levy's work at the Finance Ministry doesn't yield immediate results, but simply indicating a direction for recovery, even if only in 2016, could calm many anxieties.
On the political front, the president is also facing difficulties, with her base frayed and a skilled and strengthened adversary in the Speaker of the House, Eduardo Cunha. However, the president can still count on the support of the President of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, and compete in the House, offering positions in the administration, to regroup the lower ranks in her favor. Likewise, it will not be easy, but there are indeed no simple tasks for the government at this moment.
In short, the Datafolha poll showed that the president lost 19 points in the "excellent/good" category, and these points didn't remain at the "average" level, jumping directly to the "bad/terrible" ratings. This demonstrates a sharp fluctuation, which the government failed to defend. Having a proactive communications department again could make all the difference in Dilma's recovery.
A first step in organizing a recovery in popularity would be for the president to return to filling media spaces and directly engaging with the public. In her first term, Dilma reaped the benefits every time she expanded her itinerary of visits throughout the country. This face-to-face interaction was a decisive element in her re-election, which she won by less than 3,5 million votes. If she starts leaving the Presidential Palace more often and speaking more to both friendly and opposing audiences, Dilma will show that she is confronting her problems. If she remains withdrawn, they will only worsen.