Dilma and Medvedev, Lula and Putin

There was a time when the Orloff effect – “I am you tomorrow” – occurred between Brazil and Argentina. Any economic magic from Buenos Aires was soon repeated in Brazil. But has this law of causality now migrated to distant Russia? And not in economics, but in politics?

Let's see.

Vladimir Putin was a nationalist-leaning president who served two terms after the 1998 default crisis, inherited from a succession of liberal governments. He left office extremely popular, but resisted the temptation to seek a third term. However, he chose his "manager," Dmitry Medvedev, as his successor.

Any resemblance to Brazil is not a mere coincidence.

Here, during the 2010 election campaign, PT (Workers' Party) activists carried signs that read: Lula 3 = Dilma.

The factory worker Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also resisted the temptation of a third term. He chose his "big boss" Dilma Rousseff as his successor.

So, what do the polls say?

An internal poll by the PSDB reveals that Dilma would be re-elected in the first round today, with extreme ease over her 2010 rivals, José Serra and Marina Silva. She would have 59%, compared to 25% and 15% for her opponents, respectively.

Does that mean Dilma won't be Medvedev?

It may be, or it may not be.

In Russia, Medvedev would also have been able to get re-elected, according to local polls, but he preferred to return power to the all-powerful Vladimir Putin.

Here, despite polls showing Dilma in the lead, there are other surveys, such as one published in the newspaper Valor Econômico, indicating that the "common people" would like to see Lula as a candidate again. In other words: the population approves of Dilma, but prefers Lula.

In short: today there are only two strong names for the 2014 presidential race. And they are Putin and Medvedev, oops, Lula and Dilma.

Could Russia be Brazil tomorrow?