Dilma must fear her "allies".
Suddenly, Vice President Michel Temer has begun to echo the media and the opposition regarding the number of ministries in the federal government and political reform.
The unraveling of politics throughout the dark month of June, which transformed a country full of promising expectations into one in a trance, viewed negatively internationally and so full of doubts about the future that the economy is already suffering – according to preliminary data from that fateful month – has the potential to generate a wave of betrayals among the allied base.
Indeed, if President Dilma Rousseff, despite having very high approval ratings, was already facing problems with the parliamentary base that officially supports her government, then her drop in the polls, coupled with the economic problems that will arise as a result of last month's earthquake, is likely to expose the true nature of the opportunistic parties that support her.
It's not being said much, but rumors are circulating that the most radical sectors of the right-wing media coalition harbor a dream: to impeach Dilma. With that, the opposition's "reforms"—dismantling the policies of the Lula era—could begin before January 2015—why wait so long to seize power, right?
If some scandal – which, at a time like this, would have the power to remobilize "the masses" – is thrown at the president by some magazine like Veja, the "solution" of impeachment would become almost obvious and would satisfy the bloodlust "of the streets".
According to rumors, the hopes of these sectors of the opposition are focused on the Vice President of the Republic, Michel Temer – anyone familiar with his history knows why. He would assume the position of the president ousted by a "Paraguayan" coup and would proceed to follow the dictates of the pro-government, media-driven coup plotters.
Information about the opposition's coup attempt arrived with a script last week. The first signs would come through statements from the Vice President of the Republic that would contradict the President and her policies.
Suddenly, Temer has begun to echo the media and the opposition regarding the number of ministries in the federal government and political reform.
Read below an excerpt from a note on the Brasil 247 website regarding Temer's statements:
"After a long meeting led by Vice President Michel Temer, the largest allied party in the government suggested to President Dilma Rousseff that she reduce the number of ministries "with a view to cost reduction and austerity"; until then, criticism of the 39 ministries in the federal government had come from the opposition, led by Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB); the statement also says that the party supports a popular consultation on political reform, but not necessarily through a plebiscite, and suggests including a question about reelection in the Executive branch."
Temer's statement is serious. Urging Dilma to reduce the number of ministries, and even more so saying so through the press, is not the behavior of an ally. Even if the president supported the measure in order to appease the opposition and the media, granting them the victory of acknowledging that their criticisms were justified, the priority in announcing the measure should have belonged to her.
There is no doubt that Temer made a unilateral statement, that is, without consulting the head of the federal executive branch. Such conduct perfectly fits the rumors about the risk of the PMDB party assuming its nature as a party that always sides with whoever is winning, regardless of the betrayals it may have to commit.
There is little to recommend to the president, even if she listened to those who warned her that the course of her government would lead to this. The only thing that could appease her "allies" would be some show of political strength. However, the government is paralyzed. It is betting everything on a political reform that will not come about so easily, being bombarded even by allies.
If the government still has any weapon left, therefore, that weapon is former president Lula. His popularity has suffered the least damage, and recent polls show that he is seen as the most prepared to lead the country through the political chaos that has been created.
The problem is that his interference could further demoralize Dilma. It could send a message that she is not up to the task of leading the country as its political leader. Unless such interference finds a tone that doesn't convey that impression to the public.
We are living through a very delicate moment. The greater the uncertainty about the chances of continuity of the current political-administrative project, the greater the retraction of investors and businesses, which will have undeniable effects on economic activity and the level of employment, the latter being the government's lifeline during the ongoing storm.
The government and the economy, therefore, have become hostages to the unpredictable. All that can be hoped for is that, should the street protests lose momentum, the damage they have caused to the economy will be limited to June.
If, in the coming months, the government manages to find some room for maneuver to revive the economy and prevent employment levels from suffering, public morale may improve. In any case, Brazil urgently needs good news.
The opposition and the media, unknowingly, are preparing to seize power, convinced that Dilma is finished – a premise that is far too hasty. But even if that's true, these people risk taking over a country in social upheaval and mired in crisis. Breaking Brazil just to win next year's election will prove to be a self-inflicted wound.
Is it worth warning people? No. But at least the warning is recorded here, so that, later on, everyone will remember who saw what first.
In short, it's unclear what to do with the allied base. Michel Temer's statements must have triggered a red flag in the Planalto Palace. The risk of any "recklessness" has become unbearable, knowing the treacherous nature of the largest party allied with the government. If these kinds of statements from the vice-president continue, betrayal will be a matter of time.