PT's performance in SP, RJ, BA and PR affects Dilma.
The performance of gubernatorial candidates Alexandre Padilha in São Paulo, Lindbergh Farias in Rio de Janeiro, Rui Costa in Bahia, and Gleisi Hoffmann in Paraná is affecting President Dilma Rousseff in the polls; promises of strong starts have not materialized; in the four states that together account for more than 40 million votes, PT candidates are in last place or losing ground to their opponents; with weak platforms in areas where the PT has always been strong, Dilma will have to rely on her party's recovery to avoid a second round; will the PT react?
247 - The plan isn't going as expected. The PT's initial idea was to win the gubernatorial elections in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Bahia, but the polls, at this point, show a very different reality.
In São Paulo, gubernatorial candidate Alexandre Padilha is struggling with 4% of voting intentions, according to a Datafolha poll, placing him last in the race for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes (São Paulo state government headquarters). In Rio de Janeiro, Senator Lindbergh Farias has just lost the third position he held, overtaken by Governor Luiz Fernando Pezão of the PMDB party. In Bahia, Congressman Rui Costa is failing to challenge the coalition of parties led by Paulo Souto of the DEM party. The opposition to Governor Jacques Wagner is already talking about winning in the first round. The PT's performance in the three states that together account for more than 35 million voters is being significantly hampered by one party: the incumbent candidate, Dilma Rousseff.
The news from Paraná isn't good either, where former minister Gleisi Hoffmann, who started the electoral race with full force, is now facing the rise of former governor Roberto Requião, of the PMDB party, in the quest for a spot in the second round against governor Beto Richa, of the PSDB party.
Judging by the Datafolha poll released yesterday, the president is being affected by the performance of the Workers' Party (PT). Besides failing to climb to new levels in the institute's rankings – fluctuating negatively to 36% of voting intentions, within the margin of error of two percentage points – Dilma has lost strength in major cities and currently lacks strong enough support to reverse the situation immediately.
The exception amidst the fragility surrounding the race is candidate Fernando Pimentel in Minas Gerais. Without directly confronting the administration of the PSDB governor Antônio Anastasia, Pimentel is managing to maintain his lead in the main polls, even without yet seeing a first-round victory.
In São Paulo, on the contrary, the one who already foresees a smooth election is the PSDB governor Geraldo Alckmin. This situation, within an already negative scenario, is proving to be the most challenging for the president's candidacy. It is already noticeable that Alckmin is beginning to transfer votes to the PSDB presidential candidate Aécio Neves.
In Rio de Janeiro, Aécio is benefiting from the PMDB's split with Dilma. Governor Luiz Fernando Pezão is rising in the polls and has already overtaken the PT senator Lindberg Farias. The so-called "Aezão ticket" is working, and Dilma is not benefiting from it at all.
In Bahia, the center-right coalition assembled by the mayor of Salvador, ACM Neto, to benefit his party colleague Paulo Souto of the DEM, is pushing the PT deputy Rui Costa to the sidelines. In the interior and the capital, the greater presence of the opposing coalition has already led the PMDB senatorial candidate Geddel Vieira Lima to tell 247 that the election will be decided in the first round – against Governor Jacques Wagner and the president.
As long as the PT candidates don't improve their performance, there aren't strong enough platforms in the largest states to support Dilma. The exception is Minas Gerais, where the reality, for the PT supporters, is proving better than the projections. Taking advantage of the local PSDB's mistakes, but without directly attacking Governor Antonio Anastasia, former minister Fernando Pimentel is leading the race without facing a major threat, even though he doesn't foresee a first-round victory.
Faced with this situation of widespread problems – and difficult solutions – in the country's main electoral districts, Dilma is increasingly relying on her own efforts to keep her chances alive of winning the election in the first round. Who can help her?