Datafolha poll shows a five-point increase in Lula's approval rating, but society remains polarized.
The president halts his downward spiral, gains support among the middle class and the most educated, and maintains his strength in the Northeast.
247 - President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has shown signs of recovery in his popularity after months of decline. According to the most recent Datafolha poll, released by FSPHowever, approval of his government increased by five percentage points, rising from 24% in February to 29% in April. This result marks a reversal in the downward trend and demonstrates that recent government actions, especially in the areas of communication and advertising, are beginning to have an effect.
Among the most significant advances are those seen in the middle class and among Brazilians with higher education levels. In the higher education bracket, approval jumped from 18% to 31%. Among those earning between 2 and 5 minimum wages, positive ratings rose from 17% to 26%. The same growth pattern is repeated in the higher income brackets: among those earning between 5 and 10 minimum wages, and also among those earning more than 10 minimum wages, the approval rate increased from 18% to 31%.
In the Northeast, a traditional stronghold of support for the president, approval ratings rose again, reaching 38%, after a drop recorded between December and February. In the Southeast, the increase was also significant: from 20% to 25%. Among women, who had shown a sharp drop in support at the beginning of the year, the rate of excellent or good ratings rose from 24% to 30%.
The survey was conducted between April 1st and 3rd, with 3.054 respondents in 172 municipalities. The margin of error is two percentage points. The recovery of the president's image occurs after a series of strategic adjustments, such as the appointment of marketing expert Sidônio Palmeira to head the Secretariat of Social Communication (Secom). Last Thursday (3), the government held the event "Brazil Turning Things Around", with positive assessments of the Executive's actions — marking a new phase of more assertive action in the dispute over the public narrative.
Although disapproval is still numerically higher (38%), it has fallen compared to the peak of 41% recorded in February. The "fair" rating remained stable at 32%. Expectations about the future of the government show a divided country: 35% believe Lula will have an excellent or good government, the same percentage as those who expect a bad or terrible performance. Another 28% project a fair administration.
Comparing this to other historical moments also puts the current numbers into perspective. At the height of the Mensalão scandal in 2005, Lula registered similar approval ratings (28%). However, in May 2021, in the third year of Jair Bolsonaro's government, only 24% rated his administration as excellent or good, while 45% considered it bad or terrible.
Another relevant piece of data concerns the population's perception of their personal lives: while 29% say their situation has worsened since Lula took office, 28% say it has improved—a fluctuation within the margin of error, but one that shows a trend towards equilibrium. Those who feel nothing has changed fell from 51% to 42%, signaling a perception of transformation, albeit incipient.
With an advertising campaign in preparation and contracts that could amount to up to R$ 3,5 billion in institutional communication, the Lula government is betting on regaining political prominence and connecting with the population. The partial recovery recorded by the Datafolha survey indicates that this turnaround may be underway.
