Datafolha analysis: Bolsonaro has little time to turn things around and Lula is still the favorite.
With only a few days of the campaign left, a turnaround seems unlikely.
247 - Brazilian journalist César Felício, an analyst for Valor Econômico, believes that Jair Bolsonaro has little time left to turn the election around, despite the Datafolha poll showing a smaller gap between him and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. "If this second-round campaign were to extend for another month, and not just ten days, one could safely say that the president would be the favorite in this contest. The second-round scenario, however, is open because there are only ten days of campaigning left. As Lula is maintaining 49%, it is clear that, so far, according to Datafolha, Bolsonaro has not taken votes away from the Workers' Party candidate." writes the journalist in his analysis..
"To surpass him without a direct transfer of votes between the two, the president would need to convince at least two-thirds of voters who are undecided or intend to cast a null or blank vote, a feat that would be more feasible if Lula's rejection rate were higher than Bolsonaro's, which is not the case," he adds.
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