2014 without Marina Silva will make the first round look like the second.
Predictions converge on the fact that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will not grant registration to Rede (Sustainability Network) in the coming hours; former minister Marina Silva swears up and down that she has no plan B; thus, if she does not run, and with José Serra having said 'I'm staying' with the PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party), the 2014 scenario shows only two well-structured opposition candidates: Aécio Neves of the PSDB and Governor Eduardo Campos of the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party); this was everything that President Dilma Rousseff's strategists wanted; with fewer adversaries, it will be easier to defend against attacks and highlight the positive aspects of her administration; to make matters better, the PT (Workers' Party) will do everything to convince Campos to remain among its allies; if successful, in practice the first-round race will be an early second round.
247 - Things are turning out exactly as the PT wanted. Just hours before the Superior Electoral Court decides on the registration of the Rede Solidariedade party, predictions unanimously indicate that former minister Marina Silva will not be able to secure her own party affiliation to run for President in 2014. Furthermore, former governor José Serra formally announced, via Facebook, that he will remain with the PSDB, closing the door to a candidacy of his own under the PPS banner.
If Marina's word is to be believed—that she doesn't have a Plan B for immediate action, such as joining another party or even accepting the PSDB's overtures to run as Aécio Neves's vice-presidential candidate—the electoral landscape will be reduced to three nationally well-established candidates: President Dilma Rousseff (PT), Senator Aécio Neves (PSDB), and the governor of Pernambuco, Eduardo Campos (PSB). This configuration could mean that the first round of the presidential election will have all the hallmarks of a thrilling second round.
Let me explain. While the opposition would like to have as many candidates as possible in the first round, to broaden the electorate's options and, according to this calculation, force a second round by adding up the votes given to these candidates, the government hopes for the opposite. The ideal scenario envisioned by the Planalto Palace is a polarization between a government candidate and only one strong opposition competitor in the first round. In this way, President Dilma Rousseff, in her attempt at re-election, would focus on developing the defense of her administration and her government program, knowing exactly where the criticisms she will have to refute will come from. With many adversaries attacking her, the fear is a multiplication of complaints and, consequently, fewer chances of resolving the election in the first round.
Without Marina, but still with Campos and Aécio – or José Serra, who said 'I'm staying' to the PSDB party, without, however, defining if and for which position he intends to run – all the efforts of the PT party, with former president Lula at the forefront, will now be focused on forcing Campos to withdraw from the race.
The governor of Pernambuco, it's true, said he will only discuss a candidacy in 2014. He will likely maintain the suspense, but it's predictable that the pressure on him will only increase. After all, for the PT, fighting directly against Aécio's (or Serra's) PSDB, even in the first round, could mean two chances of victory: in the first round and, if that doesn't work, in the second round again, since all projections indicate that, at the very least, President Dilma will advance.
Given the deadline for party affiliation in time to run in the 2014 elections, this Saturday the 5th, the fate of next year's electoral race may be decided right from the start.