2013 or 2014, what year is it, after all?

247 – In the time of historical politicians like José Maria Alckmin (1901-1974), Juracy Magalhães (1905-2001), and Tancredo Neves (1910-1985), anyone thinking of running for an important elected office would deny their own desire until the last minute, so as not to be overtaken by gossip and exhausting petty squabbles. With Fernando Collor in 1989, who made haste one of his main weapons in his victory in the first presidential election after redemocratization, this attitude changed. But never before has there been such a large advance in the launch of candidacies in relation to the date of the presidential election.

With the announcement, through an interview, by the leader of the PSB party, Beto Albuquerque, of Governor Eduardo Campos' candidacy for president – ​​"a consensus within the PSB" – the field of presidential candidates can now be seen as practically complete among the major parties. And the calendar indicates that we are no less than 20 months away from election day, October 5th, 2014. This point is necessary, after all, it is February 8th, 2013!

With the right to her own reelection – a mechanism established in 1997 that undoubtedly helped to speed up the political process, since the favorite candidate, in theory, begins their first term already eyeing a second – President Dilma Rousseff is in full campaign mode. She showed political acumen in quickly expressing, here and there, to interlocutors in the Planalto Palace, her desire to run for president again. Based on leaked statements from her to the media, assuring her candidacy, the PT (Workers' Party) and former president Lula have yielded to this preference. The discourse now, both from the party machine and its main strategist, is that Dilma is the candidate. It's difficult to imagine a reversal without permanent ruptures.

Thus, given the current situation, Dilma is already a contender. And from the opposition, let's say, in the center, Eduardo Campos is positioned. Meanwhile, the PSDB is the party that is losing the most ground. But not because of the wishes of its most astute politician. Former president Fernando Henrique, at the end of 2011, openly launched Aécio Neves' name as the party's presidential candidate. He only stopped short of carrying the senator from Minas Gerais to the nearest stage. But, being from Minas Gerais, from the school of his grandfather Tancredo Neves, Aécio still prefers to follow the so-called 'old school' and wait for his party to unite so as not to suffer from backstabbing. Former governor José Serra is not helping in this regard; on the contrary. In the vacuum left by the candidacy, Serra already wants primaries to define who will ultimately run.

In other words, the only one following the old conservative line is apparently the first to fall behind. This is because, despite what the calendar shows, this 2013 we are experiencing is, in fact, the 2014 of the political calendar.

PSB

Through the PSB party, Campos has been developing his strategy for some time. Besides paving the way thanks to Pernambuco's economic growth, largely driven by federal government resources for infrastructure projects like the Abreu e Lima Refinery, he has been leading discussions on national issues that directly affect states and municipalities. These include revising the federal pact, improving the distribution of federal resources, and allocating oil royalties. Added to these factors is the PSB's strong performance in the last municipal elections, which solidified the party's position as the best-performing in the 2012 elections.

But the definitive push seems to have come with the result surrounding the election for President of the Chamber of Deputies. With just over 25 deputies elected by the party, the PSB candidate, Júlio Delgado, ended up obtaining around 165 votes, demonstrating the influence exerted by Eduardo Campos within the legislative body and highlighting the internal split in the PMDB. Now, as sources revealed exclusively to [publication name]... 247 The strategy is to gain strength and hope that other candidacies also gain momentum, in order to take the 2014 election to a second round. 

For the socialists, 2014 becomes essential. If Eduardo doesn't run, the party will have to remain in the shadows until 2018, since the governor will no longer be able to run for reelection in his state. This weakening is something that doesn't interest the party. Speculation about him being the vice-presidential candidate on Dilma's reelection ticket is also unappealing, as the party wants to become a major player and not just a supporting actor in the political process. Even if Eduardo loses the election, he will still come out ahead. At only 47 years old and extremely well-regarded, even if he is defeated, he will have gained political capital that will extend to the next election in 2018. This is the scenario that Eduardo Campos has to face.