Xi Jinping, Biden, and the two ticking time bombs in the White House.

By Marco Fernandes (*), in Brasil de Fato - Xi Jinping has been in the global geopolitical spotlight in recent weeks. After emerging strengthened from the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and with the easing of restrictive measures against Covid, the Chinese president resumed the pace of travel and bilateral meetings with heads of state expected of the leader of a nation as important as China. Before going to Indonesia for the first in-person G20 meeting since the pandemic, Xi had already met with the presidents of Vietnam (who promised to prioritize relations with China) and Tanzania, and the prime ministers of Germany (who rejected the idea of ​​decoupling from China) and Pakistan.

In Bali (for the G20), the Chinese president held no fewer than eight bilateral meetings in parallel to the summit, with France, South Africa, Senegal, South Korea, Argentina, the Netherlands, Australia, and Spain. The most anticipated of all, on the eve of the summit, was the first face-to-face meeting with Joe Biden since he became president of the USA. The conversation, which lasted more than three hours, took place amidst escalating tensions between the two countries, which have worsened since Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the increase in White House sanctions blocking China's access to next-generation chips with US technology, and more aggressive speeches from Washington's high-ranking diplomatic and military officials about an alleged threat of a "Chinese invasion" of Taiwan.

What did the US intend with this meeting? It's too early to be certain of their intentions. But the White House has been dealing with domestic and international challenges that weaken its position. Biden's popularity has plummeted in recent months, the Democrats just lost control of the House of Representatives (while retaining control of the Senate), and the US economy seems to be consolidating a scenario of low growth (with forecasts below 2% for 2022 and close to 0% in 2023), in addition to high inflation (between 7% and 8%).

His bet on the tactic of leading NATO with the goal of weakening Russia through military and financial support for Ukraine is already beginning to show signs of strain. Germany and France face serious risks of economic crisis due to soaring energy and food prices, which displease everyone from the industrial bourgeoisie (who fear an unprecedented wave of deindustrialization) to the middle and working classes (who have been protesting in the streets). The recent visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the promise of an upcoming visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to Beijing – surrounded by rumors that negotiations on war are on the agenda – demonstrate that Berlin and Paris are seeking an alternative to Washington's objectives.

On the same day as the meeting between Biden and Xi, CIA Director Nicholas Burns met with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Narishkyn of the SVR, in Ankara, Turkey. Pentagon Chief General Mark Milley has just declared that Ukraine has very little chance of winning the war and suggests a political solution. In the mainstream press in the North, there are increasing off-the-record statements about the impatience of NATO leaders and diplomats with Zelensky's actions, including lying about the origin of the missile that hit Poland, fired by Ukraine.

Two of the main non-NATO US allies in recent decades, Saudi Arabia and India, have displeased the White House with their strategic rapprochement with Russia. Just a few weeks ago, Riyadh and Moscow reached an agreement within OPEC to reduce oil production in the coming months, a direct affront to Washington's demand for increased production to lower prices. Before that, the Saudis had already declared their intention to join BRICS. The Indian Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, met last week and signed a series of agreements, including a possible partnership in arms production, an unequivocal sign of extreme political trust between the two BRICS members and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. For decades, the Russians have been the largest arms supplier to India. Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, India has become the second largest buyer of Russian oil (after China), and Jaishankar has criticized Western sanctions against Russia on more than one occasion.

With all this on his mind, Joe Biden met with Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader stated that the current status of relations between China and the US is of no interest to anyone in the world, gave a history lesson on how Taiwan is part of China, and why Beijing will not tolerate attempts to separate the island from the mainland. Xi reaffirmed that relations between the two countries should not be a "zero-sum game," in which one side wins at the expense of the other. Biden responded that the US does not want a new Cold War with China, does not seek to revitalize alliances against Beijing, and has no intention of containing the Asian country. Given the real risk of a potentially nuclear war, the effort by the presidents of the two largest global powers to rebuild direct dialogue is welcome.

As a consequence of this meeting, two important channels of dialogue, which had been suspended since Pelosi's disastrous visit to Taiwan, were re-established: regarding the climate crisis, the Chinese official, Xie Zhenhua, met with his American counterpart, John Kerry, during COP27. It is impossible to advance negotiations on the Paris Agreement if the two largest carbon emitters do not engage in dialogue.

On the other hand, Wei Fenghe and Lloyd Austin, respectively Minister and Secretary of Defense, are already arranging a meeting that should re-establish direct dialogue between the highest military authorities on each side. It remains to be seen what the US will do with Li Shangfu, the next Chinese Minister of Defense, who is under sanctions from the White House (for purchasing Russian missiles and aircraft) and is technically barred from meeting with US officials.

Finally, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen – who days before the G20 defended the “stabilization” of US-China relations – met with the governor of the People's Bank of China, Yi Gang, in Bali, while Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has already announced his trip to Beijing to continue dialogue with Chinese leaders. Let's wait for the next chapters. However, Biden will need to deal with two homemade time bombs in the coming months, which could jeopardize the good intentions he expressed at this week's meeting.

Republicans have just regained control of the US Congress, and their new president, Kevin McCarthy, has promised to send a delegation of congressmen to Taiwan if elected. In the perverse game between Republicans and Democrats over who is tougher on China, it will not be easy to make McCarthy back down from his promise and appear "soft" before an electorate daily conditioned by the media to desire confrontation with Beijing. Even more serious is a law currently being debated in Congress, the Taiwan Policy Act, which proposes: 1) inviting Taiwan to become a "major non-NATO ally"—any resemblance to Ukraine is not a mere coincidence; and 2) changing the name of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office to the Taiwan Representative Office, effectively treating it as a foreign country.

For China, this would likely be seen almost as a declaration of independence for Taiwan, which is unacceptable. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a press conference after the long conversation between the two leaders, it will be necessary to transform Biden's positive statements into concrete actions. At this point, it's difficult to know if the White House still intends to follow this wise advice.

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(*) Researcher at the Tricontinental Institute for Social Research, co-editor of China News. Historian, Master in History and PhD in Social Psychology/USP