Trump may turn the financial system into a weapon against allies after tariff shock.

247, with information from the agency Reuters - US President Donald Trump may be preparing a new offensive against international allies, using his country's immense financial power as an instrument of geopolitical coercion. Following the recent imposition of a new round of tariffs, economists, financial officials, and business leaders expect the White House to explore more aggressive means to force trade concessions, expanding the scope of the conflict beyond customs barriers.

The article, authored by John O'Donnell, highlights that the United States, as the epicenter of the global financial system and issuer of the international reserve currency, possesses powerful leverage. These tools include access to dollars through foreign central banks, dominance over international payment systems, and control over industry giants like Visa and Mastercard. While effective, these instruments carry a potentially high cost for the United States itself and could generate a strong international reaction, especially from Europe.

Plans to weaken the dollar

One of the paths considered by the Trump administration would be an international agreement to devalue the dollar — nicknamed the “Mar-a-Lago deal,” in reference to the president's resort and the historic Plaza Accord of 1985, which aimed to contain the strengthening of the American currency. The proposal, according to a document by Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump to chair the Council of Economic Advisers, would include the use of tariffs as a threat and the offering of military security guarantees to force foreign central banks to appreciate their currencies.

However, experts are skeptical. Maurice Obstfeld, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, stated that such an agreement is "very unlikely." According to him, "the central banks of the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom would not accept measures that would force them to raise interest rates and risk recessions."

Freya Beamish, chief economist at TS Lombard, added that a stronger yuan undermines China's efforts to revive its economy, while Japan, still traumatized by decades of deflation, would also not welcome a strengthening yen.

Threats regarding swap lines and the dollar as a weapon.

In the absence of a multilateral pact, the Trump administration could explore even more radical measures. One possibility would be to restrict access to the Federal Reserve's so-called swap lines—a mechanism that allows foreign central banks to obtain dollars in exchange for collateral in their own currencies. Such lines are vital during financial crises, when markets contract and investors rush to the safe haven of the dollar.

Although these operations are under the exclusive control of the Fed — a traditionally independent body — Trump's recent reshuffling of positions in regulatory agencies worries analysts. "It's no longer inconceivable that, in a larger negotiation, this could be used as a nuclear threat," assessed Spyros Andreopoulos, founder of the consulting firm Thin Ice Macroeconomics. He warns that such an attitude could, in the medium term, erode the credibility of the dollar as a reliable currency in international trade.

Credit cards as an instrument of pressure.

Another asset on the radar of the American administration are the giants of the payments sector, such as Visa and Mastercard. Together, these companies process two-thirds of card payments made in the eurozone, in addition to dominating mobile payment applications such as Apple Pay and Google Pay.

The Conference Board's chief economist for Europe, Maria Demertzis, was blunt: "The fact that the US has become hostile is a major setback." The European Central Bank, for its part, has already warned of the risks of "economic pressure and coercion" coming from the United States and considers the creation of a digital euro as a solution—even though the plans are stalled.

Russia's experience serves as a precedent. After the invasion of Ukraine, Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in the country, isolating millions of users. A similar measure applied to Europe would cause serious disruptions in consumption and liquidity within the system.

European fears and dilemmas

Despite considering fitting responses, European authorities are showing reluctance to initiate an escalation of retaliations that could further disrupt the fragile global economic balance. The strength of Wall Street and the dependence of European banks on transactions in the United States are factors that moderate any more forceful impulse.

Even so, bank executives interviewed by Reuters They confessed to growing apprehension about the possibility of reprisals and negative impacts on their operations in the near future. Faced with a scenario where the dollar could be transformed into a geopolitical weapon, the world finds itself at risk of a new Cold War—now fought within the gears of the global financial system.