Trump's tariff hike increases difficulties for the global economy.

247 - US President Donald Trump's decision to increase tariffs on imports exacerbates uncertainties about an already fragile global economy. The new tariffs were announced on Wednesday (2) and significantly increased the cost of imported products, directly impacting emerging markets and traditional US trading partners. Trump justified the measure by stating that the initiative will bring industrial production back to US territory.

In a speech in the White House Rose Garden, Trump declared that he would apply a basic tariff of 10% on all imports, with higher specific rates for countries such as China (34%) and the European Union (20%). Furthermore, the imposition of a 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts was confirmed. According to him, these measures are necessary to strengthen strategic sectors of the American economy.

Reuters spoke to experts who warned of the risks of this policy. "Trump's tariffs risk destroying the global free trade order that the United States itself has led since World War II," said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at the Nomura Research Institute. For Antonio Fatas, macroeconomist at the INSEAD business school in France, "I see this as a drift of the US and global economy towards worse performance, more uncertainty and possibly heading towards something we could call a global recession."

The immediate impact of the new tariffs is reflected in the financial market. On Thursday, stock indices plummeted, while investors sought refuge in safer assets such as government bonds, gold, and the yen.

The negative effects will also be felt in major Asian economies, which are highly dependent on the US market. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, points out that "Asian economies will be hit harder than most by the reciprocal US tariffs." China, Japan, and South Korea are among the most affected countries and are already discussing emergency measures to mitigate the damage. The Japanese government, for example, warned that the tariffs could violate World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, but said it would assess options before taking retaliatory measures.

Meanwhile, European authorities are expressing concern about the long-term impacts of Trump's protectionist policies. The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that the continent must accelerate reforms to compete in an "inverted world." "Everyone benefited from a hegemonic power, the United States, which was committed to a rules-based multilateral order," said Lagarde. "Today we need to deal with closure, fragmentation, and uncertainty."

With rising import costs, American companies may also face difficulties. If domestic industry cannot meet internal demand, consumer prices tend to rise, impacting inflation. The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, recently stated that the organization may revise its global growth projection for 2025 downwards, currently at 3,3%.

If the protectionist strategy does not translate into industrial investment on American soil, Trump may adopt other aggressive measures, such as pressure on the global exchange rate system. "We will continue to see him presenting potentially riskier ways to deal with the continued strength of the dollar," assesses Freya Beamish, chief economist at TS Lombard. Although few analysts predict a replacement of the dollar as the global reserve currency, a forced exchange rate realignment could trigger new friction between the US and its trading partners.

The global economy is heading towards a period of uncertainty. The intensification of the trade war may not only slow global growth, but also profoundly alter international economic relations in the coming years.