The Paris Protocol will be the world's largest climate agreement.
The Paris Protocol will replace the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in February 2005; but unlike the previous agreement, which had specific targets for a group of fewer than 40 developed countries, the Paris Protocol will be a global agreement involving more than 190 countries that are part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), which will take place between November 30 and December 11 in Paris.
Alana Gandra, from Agência Brasil - With just over 100 days to go until the start of the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), which will take place between November 30 and December 11 in Paris, France, the prospect is for the signing of the world's largest climate agreement. The Paris Protocol will replace the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in February 2005. But unlike the previous agreement, which had specific targets for a group of fewer than 40 developed countries, the Paris Protocol will be a global agreement involving more than 190 countries that are part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
According to André Ferretti, coordinator of the Climate Observatory, a network of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and social movements working on the Brazilian climate agenda, the world's reality has changed considerably since then. "Many countries that at that time had a much smaller role in global emissions have assumed positions of greater emissions – such as China – and the economies of emerging countries have evolved in the global economy compared to what occurred in the 1990s. This alone demands new ways of addressing the issue," he said.
The new agreement will be a kind of development guide for the future. Ferretti explained that, although the protocol is treated as an environmental discussion, it is actually a development discussion, since it will establish parameters for signatory countries to follow over the next few decades, "until at least the middle of the century." The aim is to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, "so that, by the end of the century, warming does not exceed 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared to pre-industrial levels."
The coordinator of the Climate Observatory said that the Earth's temperature has already risen by about 0,8% since the industrial revolution. "We are talking about a maximum of 1,2 degrees. Above that, the consequences could be disastrous for humanity." Scientists warn that neither the human species nor many species of animals and plants have experienced such a high average temperature. "Therefore, the risks are much greater."
For this reason, Ferretti stated that countries need to reach an agreement. They must outline domestic measures they intend to implement for a short-term horizon, between 2025 and 2030, and then for a longer horizon, until 2050. The UN has set a deadline of October 1st for countries to submit their proposals for reducing GHG emissions, which are the main cause of global warming. Few countries have submitted their proposals so far; among them are Norway, Gabon, Switzerland, Mexico, and the United States.
According to Ferretti, Brazil is behind schedule in submitting its targets because, although the deadline is the beginning of October, there was a formal request from the Climate Convention secretariat for proposals to be submitted by the end of March to facilitate the progress of negotiations, since the proposals will have to be translated into the six official UN languages (English, French, Spanish, Arabic, Chinese, and Russian). Furthermore, each country's effort may be presented on different bases, and it will have to be put on the same basis to see what the global population intends to do. "If Brazil and other countries wait until October, there is a risk that by November 30th these [emissions] figures will still be unclear."
According to the Climate Observatory, Brazil – which has always been a leader in international climate negotiations since the signing of the Climate Convention in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro during the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio 92) – "has become complacent in recent years." The Brazilian government managed to reduce deforestation in the Amazon, the country's main source of emissions, after 2004, but from then on "it has been in a very comfortable situation." Ferretti pointed out, however, that Brazil continues to emit greenhouse gases due to deforestation in the Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, and other biomes.
The latest estimate by the Climate Observatory Network, based on 2013 data, shows that land-use change accounts for 34,6% of Brazilian emissions; energy, 30,2%; agriculture, 26,6%; industry, 5,5%; and waste, 3,1%. "We see that agriculture, energy, and land-use change together represent more than 90% of emissions. Unfortunately, Brazil, in the last decade, has increased its emissions in all sectors evaluated. It only managed to reduce emissions in land-use change. And even there, we increased them slightly again in the last two years," he warned.
According to environmentalists, Brazil is going against the grain in terms of investments in clean energy sources. While countries like China and Korea are investing heavily in renewable sources, such as solar and wind power, Brazil, according to the 2014/2023 Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan, plans to invest around 71% of its projected R$ 1,263 trillion in fossil fuels and only 9,2% in renewable sources.
All these issues will be debated at the 8th Brazilian Congress of Conservation Units (Cbuc), which will take place from September 21st to 25th in Curitiba (PR). A symposium with the participation of international experts is scheduled to discuss the theme of adaptation to climate change, in order to reduce its impacts on society in general.