Trump's foreign policy favors a multipolar order, experts say.

247 - Donald Trump's "America First" stance, adopted since his first term, continues to generate debate about the future of the world order. Experts interviewed by Sputnik Brazil Studies indicate that the isolationist foreign policy of the President of the United States may accelerate the transition to a multipolar world by weakening traditional alliances and allowing emerging powers, such as China and Russia, to strengthen their global positions.

José Niemeyer, professor of international relations at Ibmec, states that if Trump resumes his policy of distancing himself from major alliances, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), this could, in fact, open space for alternative blocs like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to gain greater relevance on the global stage. "By adopting a nationalist and autarkic stance, the US could leave a gap in the global system, allowing other powers, such as China and Russia, to advance their agendas of cooperation and regional security," explained Niemeyer in an interview with the Sputnik Brasil podcast Mundioka.

Niemeyer also highlighted that, by diminishing its presence on issues such as the conflict in Ukraine and the defense of NATO, the United States may be inadvertently opening space for new power centers. "China, for example, has strengthened its positions in the South China Sea, while Russia remains an important power, especially in matters of energy security in Europe," pointed out the expert, who believes that countries like Brazil and other South American nations may also seek to strengthen their own security agendas.

However, Niemeyer warns that the path to a truly multipolar system will not be easy. "It's difficult to imagine a cooperative environment with the United States, China, Russia, and India all adopting nationalist stances. This creates a scenario of conflict, where the central powers dispute their autonomy and space in the new system," he stated. The professor added that, without the active participation of the US, discussions about a new global order would be limited. "The US remains one of the largest economies on the planet and a fundamental power in international negotiations," he concluded.

Furthermore, Niemeyer raised another important issue: the potential erosion of the dollar's hegemony. He observed that the growing trend of de-dollarization, driven by China and the BRICS members, could accelerate the use of alternative currencies, such as the yuan. "The US, by weakening its alliances and isolating itself, may be allowing new economic blocs to create a functional environment for the development of an alternative currency," the analyst stated.

Criticism of what Trump calls the "deep state," the US bureaucratic and political elite that, according to him, tries to sabotage his foreign policy, was also discussed. Niemeyer was emphatic in stating that, regardless of internal political tensions, the structures of the American state will continue to operate according to their own interests. "He [Trump] has neither friends nor enemies in the state structure. He has a very established bureaucracy and plutocracy that will act according to their own interests," he explained.

Another expert, Professor Felipe Estre, PhD in International Relations from the University of São Paulo (USP) and King's College London, also highlighted the changes in the world order. According to Estre, the transition to a multipolar order, in which the US would lose its dominant position, is an ongoing process. "If we talk about a transition to a multipolar order, we are assuming that the order wasn't multipolar before. But was it?", questioned Estre, pointing out that after the end of the Cold War, the world lived under a unipolar order dominated by the United States, but events such as 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis changed this landscape.

The rise of Trump, with his more isolationist stance and abandonment of international institutions such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris Agreement, reinforced this shift. Estre highlighted that, unlike Joe Biden, who sought to strengthen the international order, Trump preferred an approach more focused on protecting US spheres of influence. "He believes that the international order limits the United States in some way," Estre explained.

Finally, the global transition raises concerns about Brazil's role in the new world order. Estre believes that the country has adopted a cautious stance, seeking to balance its relations with the US and China. "When Brazil reduces its dependence on the United States, it ends up increasing its dependence on China, but this has its benefits," said Estre, highlighting that Brazil has proven successful in adopting a balanced strategy, without aligning itself completely with either side.