Maduro's popular and military power prevents action by Brazil and Colombia, says analyst.

247 - Between February 10th and 15th, Venezuela will conduct the largest and most important military exercises in its history, a way to demonstrate its capacity to react against potential invaders. Professor Diego Pautasso, from the International Relations Department at the Military College of Porto Alegre, discusses this topic in an interview with Sputnik Brazil.

The Civic-Military Exercises "Bicentennial of Angostura 2019" were officially described as a show of force and a message to foreign hostilities against the government of Nicolás Maduro. However, some analysts point out that the military movement also has an internal focus to broaden popular support and among the generals, who, according to reports, have been courted.

"In fact, the two dimensions complement each other. First, from an external point of view, it signals that the country has deterrent capacity, that war would have a very high cost, and that the country enjoys important international allies, especially Russia and China," explains Diego Pautasso in an interview with Sputnik Brazil.

Pautasso further adds that there is an interest in publicly demonstrating military support for the Venezuelan government in order to strengthen popular support.

"Secondly, to demonstrate that the armed forces continue to support the Maduro government while simultaneously strengthening the patriotic sentiment of the population in the face of this hybrid warfare situation to which the country is subjected, based on embargoes, sanctions, recognition of parallel governments, etc.," he continues.

The start of military exercises on Sunday (10) took place at the Guaicaipuro Military Fort, in Charallave, in the central region of the country. On that date, Nicolás Maduro delivered an emphatic speech under the aura of Simón Bolívar's historic speech during the Angostura Congress, which 200 years ago paved the way for the independence of Venezuela and other countries in the region.

"Here we have Armed Forces and here we have a people to defend the honor, dignity, and decorum of a homeland that has been fighting for its future for over 200 years. Out with Donald Trump, out with your threats!" Maduro stated. He further said that "Bolívar's soldiers would make the American empire pay dearly for any audacity to touch the sacred soil of the Venezuelan homeland."

Diego Pautasso points out that the support of the military and institutions is crucial for maintaining a government. "The support and strength of institutions is important in sustaining any government. If it doesn't have the support of the Armed Forces and the Legislative branch, the government will hardly last very long," he says.

The Venezuelan people would be a 'key element' in maintaining Chavismo.

The researcher points out that in the case of Venezuela, support for Chavismo has been of a popular nature, and exercises like those in Angostura are a way to encourage this support.

"Now, without popular support, it becomes even more difficult. And in the case of Venezuela, popular power has been, and the elections show this, the voting pattern, the support for Chavismo shows that support is in the poorest sectors of the population," he explains.

For him, the connection in Venezuela between the Armed Forces, the power of the State, the Bolivarian militias, and the people themselves has been "a key element in the persistence of Chavismo in power."

Does Brazil need to be concerned about the military exercises in Venezuela?

"These maneuvers have a deterrent spirit and are aimed not exclusively at the United States, which is, let's say, the mastermind behind the destabilization in the country, but are also aimed against neighbors, who sometimes signal support for Washington's agenda. So, it is clear that this is also a show of force towards the neighbors," says international relations researcher Diego Pautasso.

According to him, despite the movement of troops within Venezuela having a declared bias towards hostile countries, Brazil has not shown any intention of venturing into a military invasion. Among the reasons for this stance is the recognition of the difficulties of such a measure given the popular character of Chavismo.

"The statements from the military group in power in the Bolsonaro government have signaled that direct intervention is not in their interest, maintaining a certain Brazilian tradition of non-interference in the domestic affairs of other countries. And because they know, including in the words of the Brazilian vice-president [General Hamilton Mourão] who said that 'we know when wars begin, but we don't know when they end'," he analyzes.

Invading a country with popular support would be "quite complicated," according to the professor from the Military College of Porto Alegre, a fact he believes is recognized by any "minimally consistent analyst."

Pautasso also recalls the difficulties faced by the Brazilian army while supporting the peacekeeping mission in Haiti and points out that the situation in Venezuela in the event of an invasion would be much more complicated.

"In the Brazilian peacekeeping operation in Haiti — which is a completely unstructured country — with the support of the United Nations, which was accepted by the country, it was already tremendously difficult to pacify certain neighborhoods, imagine in a country with 30 million inhabitants, with hills and favelas everywhere and with solid support in these peripheral regions."

Under these conditions, the professor points out, any aggressive measure would open the door to a catastrophe and insert the region into global geopolitical tension.

"So that would be a catastrophic scenario, right? It doesn't seem like a logical position for Brazil to internalize, above all, the rivalry between the United States versus Russia and China to its immediate border," he continues.

"The discourse is always about the lack of legitimacy in the Venezuelan elections, about censorship... this is the rhetoric that the mainstream media has employed, which the Brazilian government—and the Colombian government—due to their alignment with Washington, ends up endorsing and converging with these narratives and perspectives."

"Now, certainly, the Brazilian army and government have intelligence—I mean intelligence in the sense of intelligence services—to know that the Venezuelan government has won more than two dozen elections, elections that were almost all monitored by international organizations, and that, therefore, the cost of an intervention would be gigantic," the researcher points out.

Pautasso suspects that the Armed Forces would not be willing to make a "sacrifice in favor of an agenda that is primarily external to Brazilian interests." He further reaffirms that the government is aware of the popular support for Maduro and that the difficulties generated by this situation are not in Brazil's interest.

"Not only does he recognize the popular support, but he also recognizes these forms of organization, these militias; he is aware of the external support that Venezuela has; he knows the country's public and military deterrent capacity; and he calculates the amount of energy that would have to be spent on an external war that would compromise the Brazilian budget, its energy resources, and could throw a wrench in the works of the current government," he reflects.

The professor from the Military College of Porto Alegre concludes by pointing out that an invasion by the United States would also have difficulty gaining support in Washington, since the US president, Donald Trump, has not had a good relationship with the US Congress.

"And the statements from the United States remain hostile; the vice president did not accept the dialogue proposed by Maduro, the American vice president. However, the United States also has its difficulties. Although war has been a common practice in the United States' international engagement, it's worth remembering that Trump is facing difficulties with Congress, and the war could face some kind of veto from the Democrats, creating an additional obstacle to the undertaking, so to speak, of carrying out a military effort in Venezuela," he concludes.