Oil prices fall 7% after Iran attacks US military base in Qatar, not oil tankers.

247 - Oil prices fell sharply on Monday (23), after Iran carried out a missile attack on the United States air base in Al Udeid, Qatar — the largest American military installation in the Middle East. 

According to two officials interviewed by Reuters, there were no casualties among the American military personnel. The information that Tehran would not interrupt traffic in the... Strait of HormuzThe oil pipeline, a crucial route for global oil trade, was a determining factor in the abrupt drop in prices.

According to Reuters, Brent crude futures closed down $5,53, a 7,2% drop, at $71,48 a barrel. The European benchmark traded within its highest volatility range since July 2022. Meanwhile, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), used as a benchmark in Europe, saw further declines. United States, suffered the same percentage drop, also of US$ 5,53, closing at US$ 68,51 per barrel.

The Strait of Hormuz remains open, and the market breathes a sigh of relief.

Despite initial fears that Tehran might block the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes — Iran limited its retaliation to the American base in Qatar, sparing the flow of oil and gas exports. Even so, the tension in the region triggered reactions in the markets right at the start of the Asian trading session, with Brent crude rising almost 6% amid uncertainty about the extent of the Iranian response.

"Oil flows, for now, are not the primary target and will probably not be affected; I think it will be a military retaliation against US bases and/or an attempt to hit more Israeli civilian targets," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.

According to the consultancy Energy Aspects, the fact that the attack targeted a well-protected base and caused no casualties may indicate an Iranian strategy to contain escalation. "Unless there are indications of further Iranian retaliation or escalation by Israel and the US, we could see some geopolitical risk premiums priced in over the next few days," the consultancy assessed.

Oil and gas continue to flow, but companies are withdrawing from the region.

There were no reports of operational shutdowns at Qatar Energy, the Qatari state-owned company, nor interruptions in the production or shipment of liquefied natural gas, according to a source close to the company. Nevertheless, industry giants such as BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni evacuated some of their teams working in oil fields in Iraq, reported Basra Oil Company.

Although Iran has declared that the US bombings of its nuclear facilities have broadened the list of "legitimate" targets, the escalation has so far been contained. At least two supertankers have altered their routes or interrupted their voyages in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz following the US attacks, according to maritime tracking data.

“In a way, we’ve seen this movie before. With all the geopolitical tensions we’ve seen in the Middle East, whether in Israel, Iran, or elsewhere, we haven’t yet seen the Strait of Hormuz closed, although the issue always comes up,” commented Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.