There's no easy win, says the Maduro vs. Capriles election.

247 - The official result – close and contested – of the presidential election in Venezuela alarmed some of the PT's main strategists. Less than a month ago, during the long funeral processions for Hugo Chávez, the victory of his candidate Nicolás Maduro was considered certain by a margin of more than 20 percentage points over his opponent Enrique Capriles. The Chavista regime has always cultivated a strong identification with the Brazilian PT. And the feeling is mutual. Former President Lula, during the Venezuelan campaign, even recorded a statement of support for Maduro to be broadcast in Venezuela. He even lent the party's chief marketing strategist, João Santana, to manage the commercials for the leftist candidate's campaign.

But the official results did not match the optimistic predictions of the left on both sides of the border. Capriles' criticisms of Venezuela's delicate economic situation proved to have a greater impact on the electorate than the populist welfare policies touted by Maduro in Chávez's name. To the point that, with the votes counted in the early hours of Monday morning, Chavismo had only reached 50,75%, something like 700 fewer votes than Chávez himself had in last year's election. The conservative opposition, on the other hand, grew to 48,98%, almost winning the election.

Or, who knows, maybe by winning. Immediately after the count, a battle began for and against a recount of the votes. Capriles called for three days of public protests demanding a full audit of the results, while Maduro called for a victory rally. The inauguration of the winner, scheduled for 15:30 PM Brasília time on that same Monday the 15th, did not take place at the scheduled time.

Whatever the decision on whether or not to recount the Venezuelan votes, the simple lesson of the surprises that the ballot boxes can hold has already put the PT's strategists on alert. They believe they are managing a massive lead for President Dilma over opponents such as Senator Aécio Neves of the PSDB, Governor Eduardo Campos of the PSB, and former Senator Marina Silva of Rede Sustentabilidade. From the sudden loss of consistency in Maduro's lead, simultaneously undermined by the deterioration of Venezuela's economic situation, highlighted by the opposition, and by the new demands of the popular classes promoted by Chavismo itself, the Brazilian PT members realized that even the greatest distances can be shortened in an instant. A kilometer today can be a millimeter tomorrow.

The economy will be a barometer of politics.As previously scheduled, President Dilma's agenda for Monday and Tuesday is likely to be increasingly implemented. She will be in Minas Gerais, alongside former President Lula, for a party seminar and, tomorrow, for the inauguration of the "Minha Casa, Minha Vida" (My House, My Life) program. Dilma will have ready messages to counter the criticisms of her economic policy leveled by presidential candidate Aécio. Twice governor of Minas Gerais and elected senator, the grandson of President Tancredo could play the same role against Dilma that Capriles is playing in eroding the prestige of the Chavista heir Maduro. To prevent this from happening, Dilma is likely to reinforce her public commitments outside the Planalto Palace – and to maintain constant attention, as she has already been doing, to the economy.

The lessons from the Venezuelan elections should not only accelerate the president's agenda of commitments, but also increase among her strategists the importance of the overall economic situation as a barometer for gauging the conditions of next year's election. Even having raised the quality of life for the majority of the Venezuelan population with multiple income transfer programs, Chavismo did not achieve the expected results without the presence of its charismatic leader. The fear is that President Dilma, the direct heir of Lula's legacy, could suffer similar wear and tear to that experienced by Nicolás Maduro should economic conditions, especially next year, deteriorate.

Aécio is the presidential candidate who has most emphasized the worsening economic situation, while Eduardo Campos has rehearsed a speech in which he seeks to link the achievements of the Workers' Party (PT) with the promise that it is possible to do more. Entangled in the real difficulties of forming a political party from 500 voter signatures, Marina Silva still seems to be searching for her own direction. With their ears open to what the Venezuelan ballot boxes have said, these three should become closer in their criticism of the performance of the Brazilian economy. Because it was the economy, and not politics, that made the Chavista empire falter. Nothing guarantees that it will be different here.