Genocide: Israel could kill 85 Palestinians in Gaza in the next six months.
Research shows that thousands of Palestinians could die from a variety of causes, including traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, and maternal and neonatal causes.
247 - Epidemiologists warn of a potentially even grim scenario in the Gaza Strip, where escalating Israeli attacks could result in up to 85 deaths in the next six months due to injuries and illness. This is the worst of three scenarios modeled by researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, reports [source missing]. New York Times.
Since the start of the conflict in October, more than 29 deaths have already been recorded in Gaza, according to local authorities. Expert projections indicate an alarming increase in this number if the war persists or if outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as cholera, spread in the region. Even in the most optimistic scenario, which involves an immediate and sustained ceasefire without outbreaks of infectious diseases, it is estimated that another 6,5 lives could be lost in the next six months as a direct result of the conflict.
Dr. Francesco Checchi, professor of epidemiology and international health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, emphasizes that these estimates are not political, but rather an attempt to provide evidence for policymakers to understand the human impact of the decisions made.
The research considered a variety of causes of death, including traumatic injuries, infectious diseases, maternal and neonatal causes, and non-communicable diseases for which essential treatments are inaccessible due to the ongoing conflict.
Dr. Paul Spiegel, director of the Hopkins Center for Humanitarian Health and author of the research, highlights the importance of understanding the potential humanitarian consequences of actions taken during the conflict. Even a ceasefire will not guarantee an end to war-related deaths, as many victims will continue to succumb to previous injuries or face difficulties due to lack of access to adequate medical care. The analysis also reveals that deaths from traumatic injuries will affect all age groups and genders, highlighting the intensity and widespread nature of the conflict in Gaza.