United States and China: a new Cold War?

Leonardo Sobreira, 247 - According to several international relations analysts, the world is on the verge of plunging into a new Cold War. The tension between the United States and China, exacerbated by the pandemic, exhibits characteristics of a potential global conflict that, unless contained through diplomacy, could become truly devastating for humanity. 

Even before the pandemic, the US and China were trading barbs. The trade war that began in 2018 between the two countries led them to impose heavy trade tariffs on each other. The situation in Hong Kong was condemned by the Trump administration on several occasions. Furthermore, tensions in the South China Sea nearly led the two countries to open conflict. Now, the pandemic has raised tensions to unprecedented levels, with China accusing the US of spreading "conspiracies and lies" about how the crisis was handled. 

What is behind this worsening relationship between the two countries? 

According to Stephen M. Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard University, there is a tradition in the discipline of viewing such occasions as a product of each country's internal politics. From World War I to World War II, the Cold War, and more recent conflicts in the Middle East, the US, as the world's leading democracy, has presented itself as a benign international agent. According to this theory, democracies, because they are able to restrain the actions of their leaders, are less susceptible than dictatorships to initiating wars. On the opposite side are authoritarian systems, which are not subject to such popular scrutiny, and thus their leaders are seen as capable of committing atrocities on the international stage. 

However, as Walt pointed out, this conception, besides being dangerous – since it suggests a problem “of the nature” of each country, thus making it so that only a profound change in that nature is capable of bringing peace – ignores the main dynamic of the functioning of international relations. This is the fact that, inherently, “the two most powerful countries on the international stage are extremely more susceptible to forming opposing blocs. Because one constitutes the greatest threat to the other, and vice versa, they will inevitably suspect each other and do everything to reduce the other's ability to threaten their main interests.”

This structural way of viewing the international scenario suggests, primarily, that the conflict between the two countries will persist as long as the power structures of the two actors remain unchanged. Furthermore, it also indicates that "both sides have a genuine and shared interest in containing their rivalry within a certain limit."

In any case, the US-China rivalry highlights a new structural dynamic in the international arena, leading several analysts to categorize it as a "new Cold War."

According to analyst Alan Dupont, “there are six clear parallels with the Cold War. The US-China rivalry is between the two most powerful countries in the world, one a liberal democracy and the other communist. Second, this is a dispute for supremacy over the international system. Third, it is also about values ​​and power. Fourth, it will be a battle for global ascendancy that will last for decades. Fifth, a geopolitical bifurcation of the world is likely. And sixth, neither side wants a direct military conflict.”

However, despite the potential of this conflict to redefine international politics, the promotion of peace requires yet another parallel with the Cold War. That is, the prevalence of diplomacy as the main vehicle for moderating tensions between the two countries must, as in the Cold War, be emphasized.