With stimulus measures on the horizon, China is expected to experience its weakest growth in 28 years.
China is expected to announce on Monday that its economic growth in 2018 was the weakest in 28 years, amid weaker domestic demand and US tariffs, increasing pressure on Beijing to implement more support measures to prevent a sharper slowdown.
Kevin Yao (Reuters) - China is expected to announce on Monday that its economic growth in 2018 was the weakest in 28 years, amid weaker domestic demand and US tariffs, increasing pressure on Beijing to implement more support measures to prevent a sharper slowdown.
Growing signs of weakness in China — which generated nearly a third of global growth over the past decade — are fueling concerns about risks to the world economy and weighing on the profits of companies ranging from Apple to major automakers.
Chinese lawmakers pledged more support for the economy this year to reduce the risk of massive job losses, but ruled out a "flood" of stimulus like the one Beijing unleashed in the past, which rapidly boosted growth rates and consequently created a mountain of debt.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect the world's second-largest economy to grow by 6,4 percent in the October-December quarter compared to the same period last year, slowing from the 6,5 percent seen in the immediately preceding quarter and the lowest since early 2009, during the global financial crisis.
This could pull Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2018 down to 6,6 percent, the lowest since 1990 and below the revised 6,8 percent of 2017.
With stimulus measures expected to take some time to materialize, most analysts believe conditions in China will worsen before they improve, and they anticipate a further slowdown to 6,3 percent this year. Some analysts believe that actual growth levels are already much weaker than official data suggests.
Even if China and the United States agree to a trade deal in the current negotiations, which is a difficult task, analysts say it would not be enough for the fragmented Chinese economy unless Beijing manages to stimulate investment and consumer demand.
Chen Xingdong, chief economist at BNP Paribas in China, said investors should not expect the latest round of stimulus to produce results similar to those of the 2008-2009 global crisis, when Beijing's massive spending package quickly boosted growth.
"What China can really do this year is avoid deflation, prevent a recession, and avoid a hard landing for the economy," Chen said.