Latin America could see 390,000 deaths from Covid-19 in four months, study says.
According to a study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, Brazil and Mexico are expected to account for two-thirds of deaths in the region.
Sputnik - The number of deaths from the new coronavirus in Latin America is expected to rise to 388.300 in October, with Brazil and Mexico accounting for two-thirds of the deaths, as other countries in the region are controlling their outbreaks, researchers said on Wednesday (24).
The region has emerged as a new global hotspot for the rapidly expanding pandemic, as deaths surpassed 100 this week and cases tripled from 690 a month ago to 2 million.
High levels of poverty and large informal sectors—meaning many workers cannot quarantine—combined with overcrowding in cities and inadequate public healthcare, particularly in isolated rural communities, to hamper Latin America's fight to contain the contagion.
Brazil is expected to exceed 166 deaths and Mexico will surpass 88, according to forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The same study predicts that Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Peru will have more than 10,000 deaths, while 15 countries, including Paraguay, Uruguay, and Belize, are projected to have fewer than 1,000 deaths each.
"Several Latin American countries are facing explosive trajectories, while others are effectively containing infections," assessed the director of the IHME, Dr. Christopher Murray.
What can be done to prevent the worst from happening?
Researchers at IHME warned that the loss of life could increase even further than the already grim forecast if orders regarding mask use and social distancing are relaxed.
In the worst-case scenario, the number of deaths from COVID-19 could rise to 340.476 people in Brazil and 151.433 in Mexico, the report said. The leaders of Brazil and Mexico were punished for not taking the virus seriously enough and pushing for the reopening of their economies before the virus was under control.
"Brazil is in a dark moment. Unless and until the government takes sustained and enforced measures to slow transmission, the country will continue its tragic upward trajectory of infections and deaths," Murray stated.
While Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continues to downplay the severity of the health crisis, the largest country in Latin America has recorded nearly 1,2 million cases and 53.830 deaths. Transmission can be halved in communities where people are wearing masks when leaving home, according to the IHME.
"Increased testing and mask use are important tools to reduce the number of cases of this pandemic in Mexico, in addition to maintaining a healthy distance," stated Dr. Rafael Lozano, Director of Health Systems at IHME.
If mask use increases to 95%, Brazil could see only 147.431 deaths and the projected number of deaths in Mexico could fall to 79.652, researchers said.