Waack sees the beginning of the Chinese century and the end of American hegemony after Trump's tariff hikes.

247 - The tariff hike announced by US President Donald Trump on April 2nd represents, according to an analysis published in the newspaper... State St. PaulThe article, authored by William Waack, interprets this moment as a historic turning point, with profound geopolitical, commercial, and strategic implications for the world—and particularly for Brazil. It marks the end of an era of American hegemony and the beginning of a new cycle under Chinese leadership.

“April 2nd marks the end of the American century, probably the beginning of the Chinese century,” writes Waack. For him, the measure is not limited to a shift in US trade policy, but represents the demolition of an entire multilateral system that has sustained the international order since the post-war period. “Trump decided to blow up the system. Which never existed in isolation. In the major alliances that the US has been a part of (or led) over the last eighty years, trade formed the third pillar alongside intelligence and defense.”

From the multilateral system to the law of the jungle

Instead of seeking to reform the flawed mechanisms of the global trading system—from which countries like China have largely benefited—Trump chose to abandon it altogether. The editorial points out that the new model adopted by the United States is not based on common rules, but rather on the logic of force. “Trump demolished the three pillars, paving the way in their place for the Law of the Jungle—the one in which the strongest and most powerful prevail.”

In this context, Brazil, a regional power with low global projection capacity and a modest share of world trade (around 1,5%), tends to be harmed. The relief felt by Brasília at a tariff of "only" 10% is, according to the text, illusory: "the relief felt in Brasília by the fact that the country has been granted 'only' 10% more in tariffs is misleading."

Opportunities and vulnerabilities for Brazil

Despite the global disruption, the editorial acknowledges that there are potential gains for Brazil, especially in the agro-industrial sector. China's dependence on food and commodities may intensify, opening up opportunities for increased Brazilian exports. Sectors such as footwear also foresee growth potential.

Another expected outcome is the expansion of Chinese investments in Brazil, going beyond infrastructure and reaching industrial and technological areas. Even so, these opportunities do not erase vulnerabilities: "the main one being our well-known limited capacity for international competitiveness outside the field of commodities in general and agriculture in particular."

An example of this fragility emerged when the Brazilian government discussed a possible retaliation against the American tariff hikes through intellectual property. "A shiver of horror spread through the private sector when the Brazilian government spoke of the possibility of retaliating against Trump's tariff hikes by attacking the US in the field of intellectual property," describes Waack.

A sick country leading the chaos.

In the ceremony where he announced the tariff hikes, Donald Trump adopted a nostalgic and resentful tone, describing an American economy that no longer exists. "Trump gave a loser's speech, describing a type of economy (and employment) that no longer exists and promising, like every low-level populist, days of glory just around the corner," says Waack, adding that it will not be easy to deal with a country "whose soul is sick"—a definition by Professor Mark Lilla, cited in the text.

This internal instability in the US is seen as an additional factor favoring China. On the rise, Beijing is already perceived by the current American government as a threat to its national security, especially due to its growing presence in South America and the Panama Canal.

The future in dispute

According to Waack, the world is moving towards a new era, where fragile bilateral agreements, nationalist interests, and trade disputes paint a more uncertain picture. Brazil, caught between opportunities and risks, will need to articulate a pragmatic and sovereign strategy to avoid being swallowed up by the competing forces. The text concludes with a warning and a challenge: the rules-based order is over—and Brazil will have to find its way in a world where the strongest once again dictate the rules.