Otavio Frias questions Alckmin's favoritism.

247 - The Folha de S. Paulo newspaper, run by Otavio Frias, raises doubts about Geraldo Alckmin's (PSDB) lead in the São Paulo election. According to the publication, a new wave of discontent could erupt at any moment. Read more:

A favorite, but not that much.

After the June storm, the Alckmin government recovers some of the lost support; reelection remains uncertain, and dissatisfaction is latent.

The latest round of Datafolha's election polls shows that a gentle, and so far partial, restoration of the previous situation continues – after the storm of popular protests in June.

President Dilma Rousseff (PT), who boasted a 57% approval rating before the protests and plummeted to 30% at the end of June, now stands at 41%. Similarly, the positive rating of São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), which fell from 52% to 38% during that month, is now at 41%.

Both remain favorites in the race for their own succession in October 2014, although the advantage has narrowed and the outcome of the elections seems unpredictable.

This stems not only from the long distance since the election, but also from the volatility that has surrounded politics since the eruption—surprising and ephemeral—of massive street demonstrations supported, at that time, by the overwhelming majority of the population.

The movement quickly fizzled out, leaving behind only localized protests, often involving violence, which contributed to dispersing the broad support it had previously garnered.

Under a discouraging economic scenario, with inflationary pressure and mediocre growth, however, nothing guarantees that the synchronization of random factors could not trigger a new wave of discontent, which remains latent, albeit subdued. At the national level, two-thirds of the population express a desire for change in the actions of the next government.

Signs of fatigue with the Workers' Party administration, which has already lasted 11 years, are even more pronounced in the state of São Paulo, where the PSDB is about to complete 20 years of continuous government -- half of that time under Governor Alckmin, who currently attracts 43% of voting intentions.

The weakness displayed by the challengers is what keeps the president and governor in relative comfort. In São Paulo, where the PT usually achieves between 30% and 40% of the vote, the pre-candidacy of the little-known Minister of Health, Alexandre Padilha, is still struggling at 4% of voting intentions.

In the best position, with 19%, is Paulo Skaf (PMDB). He already ran for the position in 2010 and has been making extensive use of the Fiesp structure, which he has presided over for ten years. His candidacy adds proposals to the pre-election debate, but his ability to galvanize the dissatisfied electorate remains to be seen.

A much smaller preference (8%) favors the name of former São Paulo mayor Gilberto Kassab, who, it seems, is more interested in accumulating power and electing a significant parliamentary group for his chameleon-like party, the PSD.